Are We There Yet? Evaluating the Transition to EVs

Why It Matters

EVs can become grid‑balancing assets, but without policy and managed‑charging adoption they’ll fall short of accelerating the renewable transition.

Key Takeaways

• Solar growth outpaces US total generation, driving renewable cost declines.
• Duck curve shows midday solar surplus and evening price spikes.
• EVs can act as mobile batteries to smooth grid demand.
• US EV adoption remains under 10% without strong regulatory push.
• Less than 25% of US EVs use managed charging, limiting grid benefits.

Summary

Professor Christian Kaps, speaking at the HKS Energy Policy Seminar, examined the progress and challenges of the electric‑vehicle (EV) transition. He framed the discussion around two pillars—vehicle mobility and managed charging—while highlighting the broader renewable surge, especially solar’s thousand‑fold expansion that now adds more capacity globally than the United States’ total generation.

Kaps illustrated the “duck curve,” where abundant midday solar creates negative prices and steep evening demand spikes, stressing the grid. He argued that EVs, with their sizable batteries, can absorb excess solar and discharge during peak periods, effectively flattening the curve. However, adoption remains modest: without aggressive regulation, EVs constitute under 10% of new vehicle sales worldwide, and in the United States they are still a single‑digit share of the total fleet.

Empirical analysis of a BMW‑sourced dataset—21,000 EVs and 300,000 internal‑combustion vehicles—revealed that EVs are driven slightly more than comparable ICE cars, contradicting earlier assumptions that they serve only as secondary vehicles. Despite this usage parity, managed‑charging practices are scarce; fewer than a quarter of U.S. EVs participate in demand‑response programs, and pilot projects from a decade ago have yet to scale.

The findings suggest policymakers and OEMs must accelerate incentives for managed charging and integrate EVs into grid‑balancing strategies. Doing so could unlock the dual benefits of deeper renewable penetration and faster decarbonization of transportation, turning the EV fleet into a distributed energy resource rather than merely a new load.

Original Description

In this Energy Policy Seminar, Christian Kaps, Assistant Professor of Business Administration at Harvard Business School, drew from a recent working paper for a talk entitled, "Are We There Yet? Evaluating the Transition to EVs."

More info: https://www.belfercenter.org/event/are-we-there-yet-evaluating-transition-evs