The Absence of the ‘Duck Curve’ on Monday 18th May 2026 Stands Out, in Recent History

Key Takeaways

• Solar output fell sharply on May 18, flattening the duck curve.
• Wind generation rebounded, offsetting some solar shortfall.
• Midday electricity prices stayed high, contrary to typical dip.
• Battery operators placed unusual discharge bids during daytime.
• Market signals suggest increased volatility for renewable‑heavy grids.

Pulse Analysis

The ‘duck curve’—a pronounced midday trough in electricity prices caused by abundant solar generation—has become a benchmark for grid operators worldwide. In the NEM, solar typically supplies a large share of midday demand, driving prices into negative territory and prompting battery storage to charge. When that solar influx is curtailed, the curve flattens, and price dynamics shift dramatically, exposing the market’s sensitivity to weather patterns.

On 18 May 2026, a persistent cloud band over Queensland and much of eastern Australia throttled solar output, while wind farms rebounded from previous lows. The resulting fuel mix showed a dip in solar generation and a modest rise in wind, preventing the usual midday price collapse. Instead, prices remained firm, and battery operators placed discharge bids during the day—an inversion of the standard charging‑when‑cheap approach. This behavior, captured in ez2view’s Bids & Offers widget, signals that automated battery algorithms are reacting in real time to unexpected price signals.

For market participants, the episode underscores the growing importance of flexible resources and advanced forecasting. Grid operators must account for rapid renewable fluctuations to maintain reliability, while battery owners need adaptive bidding strategies to capture revenue when traditional price patterns break down. As solar penetration deepens, such anomalies may become more frequent, prompting investors and policymakers to prioritize resilient, diversified generation portfolios and smarter market designs.