IRENA Insights: Flexibility for a Secure and Affordable Power Sector Transformation

Why It Matters

Because flexibility underpins both reliability and cost‑effectiveness as renewables dominate, overlooking it could derail climate targets and increase electricity prices for consumers.

Key Takeaways

• Renewable share must exceed 90% by 2050 for decarbonization
• Flexibility needs grow tenfold daily by 2050 under 1.5°C scenario
• Solar‑dominant systems require high intra‑day flexibility; wind‑dominant need weekly
• Flexibility measured as net‑load deviation across daily, weekly, monthly scales
• No single technology solves flexibility; portfolios essential for reliability and cost

Summary

The IRENA Insights webinar presented findings from the agency’s new report “Flexibility for a Secure and Affordable Power Sector Transformation.” Speakers Francisco Gafaro and Danielle Salim explained why flexibility has become as critical as renewable capacity in a power system that will supply the majority of final energy demand.

The report projects electricity to provide over 50 % of final energy by 2050 and renewable generation to exceed 90 % of electricity supply. Under a 1.5 °C pathway, daily flexibility requirements are expected to be ten times higher than in 2019, with weekly and monthly needs rising sixfold. Flexibility is quantified as the cumulative deviation of net‑load (demand minus variable renewable output) from its average across daily, weekly and monthly horizons.

Gafaro illustrated market signals from Germany, where expanding solar output compresses midday price spreads while increasing peak‑hour volatility and the frequency of negative‑price hours—clear signs of mounting flexibility stress. Salim highlighted that solar‑heavy systems face pronounced intra‑day swings, whereas wind‑dominant grids need more weekly and seasonal adjustments, a pattern that varies with climate zones.

The analysis warns that without a diversified flexibility portfolio—combining storage, demand‑response, grid reinforcement and cross‑border interconnections—future power systems risk higher curtailment, price volatility, and reliability gaps. Policymakers and investors must therefore embed flexibility planning into national energy strategies to achieve affordable, secure decarbonisation.

Original Description

Flexibility is essential for integrating variable renewables while ensuring a secure and affordable power system. IRENA's latest report estimates how flexibility needs will evolve across daily, weekly, and monthly timescales at global and regional levels under different decarbonisation scenarios for 2030 and 2050. The study finds that the power sector will require approximately three times the 2019 level of flexibility by 2030 and ten times by 2050.

This webinar presented key findings, exploring how flexibility resources such as batteries, long-duration storage, and demand-side management can support the power sector transformation

To read the full report, click here: https://www.irena.org/Publications/2026/Jan/Flexibility-for-a-secure-and-affordable-power-sector-transformation

For more on the Insights Webinar series: https://www.irena.org/Events/2020/Jun/IRENA-Insights