Global Sugar: Record Output Across Brazil and India Keeps Prices Under Heavy Pressure

Key Takeaways

• India’s 2024/25 sugar output hit 27.39 Mt, exceeding full-season forecast
• Brazil projects 44.2 Mt sugar, second‑largest record ever
• Global surplus estimated at 8.3 Mt in 2025/26, pressuring prices
• India cancels export ban, removing key bullish catalyst
• Technical support at $410/t; breach could drive price toward $397/t

Pulse Analysis

Record harvests in Brazil, India and China have turned the global sugar market into a classic case of supply outpacing demand. India’s output already surpassed its full‑season target, and the government’s decision to keep exports open eliminates the last major upside lever. Brazil’s shift toward a higher cane‑to‑sugar ratio and its projected 44.2 Mt output further deepen the surplus, while China’s upward revision adds another 0.8 Mt to the pool. Together, these factors have pushed futures to a five‑year low, compressing margins for producers and prompting inventory build‑ups across the supply chain.

The surplus is not merely a short‑term glitch; it reflects structural changes in how major producers allocate resources. Brazil’s reduced ethanol diversion and India’s lower ethanol quota free more sucrose for export, while weather stress in Thailand and parts of India introduces a delayed risk that could affect the 2026/27 crop. However, the market is currently pricing the 2025/26 season, where the bulk of the surplus is already in the pipeline, leaving little room for price recovery unless a significant demand shock or policy shift occurs.

Technically, the market is perched on a fragile support level near $410 per tonne. A sustained close below this threshold could reopen the path to the $397 cycle low, while a decisive close above $429 would be needed to signal a genuine trend repair. Traders should monitor the 50‑day moving average at $420.5 and watch for any policy or weather developments that could alter the surplus narrative, especially as the ratoon crop in Brazil approaches the 2026/27 harvest window.