Oil Context Weekly (W6)

Summary

In this week’s Oil Context Weekly, the host reviews flat crude prices slipping below $68 a barrel after geopolitical chatter between the U.S. and Iran, while noting a modestly backwardated term structure with a "smiley‑faced" futures curve extending to 2027. Inventory data show a massive winter‑storm draw in the U.S. contrasted with rising Singapore product stocks, and refined product margins normalize as diesel cracks retreat and gasoline spreads settle. Market positioning reveals speculators as net buyers, pushing speculative exposure near a year‑high and suggesting a downside bias for prices. Additional themes include easing Iranian risk, EU bans on Russian maritime services, a surprise U.S.–India trade deal, plateauing U.S. production, and evolving West Coast pipeline options in Alberta.