Chinese PV Industry Brief: Polysilicon Prices Slide Amid Low Operating Rates

Why It Matters

Sustained oversupply and price erosion pressure margins across China’s PV supply chain, while large‑scale inverter procurement and module price tweaks signal shifting dynamics for downstream developers.

Key Takeaways

• Polysilicon operating rates drop to 32% capacity
• Wafer prices fall 3-8% across grades
• Daqo reports Q4 loss despite high production
• CGN tender seeks 9 GW inverter capacity 2026
• Trina raises module prices slightly, some categories decline

Pulse Analysis

China’s polysilicon market remains in a deep trough, with utilization sliding to just 32% of installed capacity. The surplus, amplified by limited post‑holiday transactions, has forced spot prices lower and filtered through to wafer pricing, where n‑type G10L, G12R and G12 grades fell between 3.45% and 8.33%. This price trajectory underscores the fragility of the upstream segment, where inventory buildup can quickly erode cash flow for producers that rely on volume to offset thin margins.

Downstream demand has not recovered as quickly as anticipated, a trend highlighted by Daqo New Energy’s recent financials. Despite shipping over 38,000 MT of polysilicon in Q4 and achieving a full‑year output of 123,652 MT, the company recorded a $7.3 million net loss for the quarter and a $170.5 million loss for 2025. The loss reflects both the pricing squeeze and higher operating costs, prompting Daqo to target a modest 35,000‑40,000 MT output in Q1 2026 while planning a full‑year ramp to 140,000‑170,000 MT after scheduled maintenance. The results signal that profitability in the Chinese PV material sector will hinge on demand recovery rather than production scale alone.

On the downstream side, China General Nuclear Power New Energy’s 2026 inverter framework tender, covering 9 GW of string inverters, illustrates a strategic push to secure supply for large‑scale projects. The tender’s inclusion of multiple manufacturers, from Sungrow to Sofar Solar, will likely intensify competition and drive cost efficiencies. Meanwhile, Trina Solar’s modest price adjustments—slight hikes for standard and bifacial modules and small cuts for anti‑glare and lightweight glass units—reflect a nuanced response to market pressures, balancing margin preservation with the need to stay price‑competitive. Together, these developments suggest a PV ecosystem in transition, where supply‑side excesses, demand volatility, and strategic procurement will shape pricing and investment decisions in the coming year.