EIA: Brent Crude to Reach $115/Bbl in Second-Quarter 2026

Why It Matters

The outlook highlights how geopolitical risk can quickly drive oil prices higher, reshaping energy costs, inflation pressures, and investment decisions across the global economy.

Key Takeaways

• Brent projected $115/bbl Q2 2026 amid Gulf shut‑ins.
• Production outages peak at 9.1 million barrels/day in April.
• Demand growth revised down to 0.6 million b/d for 2026.
• US gasoline expected near $4.30 per gallon in April.
• LNG exports forecast to exceed 17 bcfd in 2026 despite limits.

Pulse Analysis

The Energy Information Administration’s latest short‑term outlook underscores how quickly a regional conflict can reverberate through global oil markets. 1 million barrels per day. That supply squeeze lifted Brent crude from a March average of $103 per barrel to an anticipated $115 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, a level not seen since 2022. The price surge cascades into refined products, eroding disposable income and adding pressure to inflation calculations.

S. 80 per gallon in the same month. 6 million barrels per day, half of earlier expectations. Simultaneously, the turmoil reshapes the liquefied natural gas landscape. S.

exporters to fill the gap. S. LNG shipments to rise to 17 bcfd in 2026, surpassing the 2025 record, though terminal capacity remains a bottleneck. If geopolitical tensions ease, the market may normalize, but the embedded risk premium suggests elevated prices could persist through late 2026.