EIA Lowers USA Gasoline Price Forecasts

Why It Matters

Lowered forecasts signal modest relief for consumers and downstream margins, while highlighting the volatility that still surrounds U.S. fuel markets.

Key Takeaways

• EIA forecasts 2026 gasoline at $2.91/gal.
• 2027 price projected at $2.93/gal, slight decline.
• Quarterly volatility shows Q2 spikes above $3.
• GasBuddy reports current average $2.84/gal, up weekly.
• OPEC+ production decisions could cap future price rises.

Pulse Analysis

The Energy Information Administration’s latest short‑term outlook reflects a subtle easing of gasoline price pressure, cutting the 2026 average to $2.91 per gallon and nudging the 2027 estimate to $2.93. This adjustment follows a modest downgrade from the January outlook and aligns with a broader trend of flattening crude oil prices after a year of volatility. By keeping the 2025 average at $3.10, the EIA underscores that the market’s near‑term equilibrium remains anchored around the $3 mark, with quarterly fluctuations driven by seasonal demand and refinery maintenance cycles.

For motorists and fleet operators, the revised numbers translate into incremental savings, but the benefit is tempered by short‑term spikes. GasBuddy’s crowdsourced data shows the national average hovering at $2.84 per gallon, a 4.9‑cent rise from a month ago yet still 24.5 cents below the one‑year level. The price composition—47% crude, 20% distribution, 17% taxes, and 16% refining—highlights how crude‑oil cost swings dominate the headline figure. As summer‑grade blends approach, refiners may tighten margins, potentially pushing quarterly prices above $3 despite the annual downward trend.

Looking ahead, the outlook remains sensitive to external forces. OPEC+ production decisions could inject additional barrels into the market, capping crude price upside and dampening any aggressive spring rally at the pump. Conversely, geopolitical flashpoints, particularly U.S.–Iran tensions, inject uncertainty that could trigger abrupt price spikes. Stakeholders—from oil majors to logistics firms—must monitor these variables closely, balancing inventory strategies with hedging tactics to navigate a market where modest forecasts coexist with pronounced short‑term volatility.

EIA Lowers USA Gasoline Price Forecasts

By Andreas Exarheas · Rigzone Staff · Thursday, February 19, 2026 · 9:27 AM EST

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has lowered its U.S. regular gasoline retail price projections for 2026 and 2027 in its latest short‑term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month.

According to this STEO, the EIA now sees the gasoline price averaging $2.91 per gallon in 2026 and $2.93 per gallon in 2027. In its previous STEO, released in January, the EIA projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price would average $2.92 per gallon this year and $2.95 per gallon next year.

Both STEOs showed that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price came in at $3.10 per gallon in 2025.

A quarterly breakdown included in the EIA’s latest STEO projected that the U.S. regular gasoline retail price will average:

• $2.88 per gallon in Q1 2026

• $3.04 per gallon in Q2 2026

• $2.97 per gallon in Q3 2026

• $2.76 per gallon in Q4 2026

• $2.79 per gallon in Q1 2027

• $3.05 per gallon in Q2 2027

• $3.04 per gallon in Q3 2027

• $2.82 per gallon in Q4 2027

In a blog posted on the GasBuddy website on Monday, GasBuddy noted that the U.S. average price of gasoline had risen 2.6 cents over the last week, standing at $2.84 per gallon, based on data compiled from more than 12 million individual price reports covering over 150,000 gas stations across the country.

“The national average is up 4.9 cents from a month ago and is 24.5 cents per gallon lower than a year ago,” GasBuddy highlighted.

Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, stated that “the national average price of gasoline continues to grind higher,” adding that “while the pace of increases remains modest for now, upward momentum could accelerate in the coming weeks as refinery maintenance intensifies and the broader transition to summer gasoline begins.”

“However, supply‑side dynamics could temper that seasonal pressure. If OPEC+ proceeds with resuming production increases following its first‑quarter pause, additional barrels could cap crude oil’s upside and limit the magnitude of the spring rally at the pump,” he continued.

“That said, geopolitical tensions—particularly between the U.S. and Iran—remain an unpredictable variable, injecting risk into the outlook and leaving prices vulnerable to sudden shifts,” De Haan warned.

According to the AAA Fuel Prices website, the average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. is $2.929 per gallon as of February 19. Yesterday’s average was $2.923 per gallon, the week‑ago average $2.944 per gallon, the month‑ago average $2.825 per gallon, and the year‑ago average $3.164 per gallon.

The highest recorded average price of regular gasoline in the U.S. was seen on June 14 2022, at $5.016 per gallon.

The EIA’s latest gasoline fuel update, released on February 18, showed that the average U.S. regular gasoline price increased from $2.867 per gallon on February 2 to $2.902 per gallon on February 9 and $2.924 per gallon on February 16. Although the February 16 price was $0.022 higher than the prior week, it was $0.224 lower than the year‑ago price and $0.345 lower than the price two years ago.

According to this fuel update, which pegged the price of regular gasoline at $3.05 per gallon in November 2025, the cost composition was:

• 47 % crude oil costs

• 20 % distribution and marketing costs

• 17 % taxes

• 16 % refining costs

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