EIA Still Sees USA Oil Output Falling Next Year

Why It Matters

A dip in U.S. crude supply could tighten global oil markets, influencing prices and reshaping export strategies for American producers.

Key Takeaways

• EIA forecasts 13.60 mb/d in 2026, 13.32 mb/d in 2027.
• Lower 48 output drops 0.19 mb/d from 2026 to 2027.
• Gulf of Mexico production declines slightly, Alaska rises marginally.
• 2024 marked first year average >13 mb/d in U.S. history.
• Decline may pressure US export volumes and price outlook.

Pulse Analysis

The latest EIA short‑term energy outlook highlights a subtle but clear shift in U.S. oil supply dynamics. After a historic surge that pushed average daily production above 13 million barrels in 2024, the agency now anticipates a 2‑percent dip by 2027, driven largely by waning output in the Lower 48. This trend reflects maturing shale basins, tighter capital allocation, and modestly lower well‑head pressures, while offshore Gulf and Alaskan fields remain relatively flat. Together, these factors suggest the United States is moving away from its recent production peak toward a more stabilized output level.

For market participants, the projected contraction carries several implications. Lower domestic supply can tighten global crude inventories, supporting higher spot prices especially if OPEC+ maintains its output discipline. U.S. exporters may face reduced volumes for overseas shipments, prompting a re‑evaluation of logistics and pricing contracts. At the same time, refiners could benefit from a tighter supply‑demand balance, potentially improving margins on domestically sourced crude. The forecast also adds a layer of uncertainty for investors in upstream equities, as capital‑intensive drilling projects may see delayed returns.

Policymakers and industry leaders must weigh the forecast against broader energy transition goals. A modest production decline aligns with long‑term decarbonization pathways, yet it also underscores the need for strategic reserves and infrastructure planning to avoid supply shocks. The EIA’s independent stance reinforces the credibility of its data, encouraging transparent dialogue between regulators, producers, and consumers. As the U.S. navigates this inflection point, balancing short‑term market stability with long‑term sustainability will be key to maintaining its influence in the global energy landscape.

EIA Still Sees USA Oil Output Falling Next Year

By Andreas Exarheas (Rigzone Staff) · Tuesday, February 17, 2026 · 6:51 AM EST

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) is forecasting that total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, will drop from 2026 to 2027 in its latest short‑term energy outlook (STEO), which was released earlier this month.

According to its February STEO, the EIA sees U.S. oil output averaging 13.60 million barrels per day this year and 13.32 million barrels per day next year. U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, came in at 13.60 million barrels per day in 2025, the STEO highlighted.

In its previous STEO, released in January and the first to offer production predictions for 2027, the EIA saw total U.S. crude oil production, including lease condensate, dropping from 13.61 million barrels per day in 2025 to 13.59 million barrels per day in 2026 and 13.25 million barrels per day in 2027.

The EIA projects that in 2026 the Lower 48 States (excluding the Gulf of Mexico) will produce 11.15 million barrels per day of the total, while the Federal Gulf of Mexico and Alaska will produce 1.98 million and 0.47 million barrels per day, respectively.

For 2027, the STEO forecasts the Lower 48 States will produce 10.96 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico 1.87 million barrels per day, and Alaska 0.50 million barrels per day.

In 2025, the Lower 48 States produced 11.28 million barrels per day, the Federal Gulf of Mexico 1.90 million barrels per day, and Alaska 0.42 million barrels per day, according to the February STEO.

A data page on the EIA website displaying monthly U.S. field production of crude oil (last updated February 6, 2026) shows that monthly U.S. field production averaged 13.864 million barrels per day in October 2025—the highest figure in the data set. The second‑highest was September 2025 at 13.828 million barrels per day, and the third‑highest was August 2025 at 13.810 million barrels per day.

Monthly U.S. field production of crude oil has averaged 13 million barrels per day or more on 26 occasions: eleven of these were in 2025, another eleven in 2024, and four in 2023.

A data page on the EIA site showing annual U.S. field production (also last updated February 6, 2026) indicates that annual production averaged 13.235 million barrels per day in 2024. Prior to 2024, annual production had never averaged 13 million barrels per day or more. The closest it came was in 2023, at 12.943 million barrels per day.

In its STEO, the EIA describes itself as the statistical and analytical agency within the U.S. Department of Energy. The agency states that, “by law,” its “data, analyses, and forecasts are independent of approval by any other officer or employee of the U.S. Government,” and adds that “the views in this report do not represent those of DOE or any other federal agencies.”

The EIA notes on its website that it collects, analyzes, and disseminates independent and impartial energy information to promote sound policymaking, efficient markets, and public understanding of energy and its interaction with the economy and the environment.

To contact the author, email [email protected].