French Urea Imports Surge in 2H 2025

Why It Matters

The spike highlights how CBAM is reshaping European fertilizer trade, raising costs for North‑African supplies and prompting a shift toward domestic or low‑carbon sources, which will affect margins across the sector.

Key Takeaways

• Imports rose 12% YoY, reaching 1.9 mn t.
• December shipments doubled historic monthly average.
• CBAM levy adds €36‑€37 per tonne on North African urea.
• Russian urea supply fell 73% year‑on‑year.
• EU tariff hikes will further pressure non‑EU imports.

Pulse Analysis

The second half of 2025 saw French urea imports jump to 1.15 million tonnes, a 37 % increase over the same period a year earlier. Buyers accelerated purchases ahead of the EU’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which imposes a carbon‑intensity levy on imported nitrogen fertilizers. December alone recorded 279,000 tonnes, more than double the three‑year monthly average. This front‑loading eases spring‑time supply pressure but also locks importers into higher CBAM charges, especially for Egyptian and Algerian shipments that carry a default levy of €36‑€37 per tonne.

The surge reshapes trade dynamics as the CBAM makes non‑EU urea comparatively costlier, prompting a shift toward European producers. While the Netherlands and Germany together supplied over 430,000 tonnes in 2025, Russian deliveries collapsed to 43,000 tonnes, a 73 % drop, and are set to face additional anti‑dumping duties of €60‑€70 per tonne from July. Combined with the EU’s standard 6.5 % tariff, these measures tighten margins for importers reliant on North African sources. Consequently, French buyers are weighing verified plant emissions data to reduce CBAM liabilities, a practice that could become industry‑wide.

Looking ahead, Western Europe’s urea capacity of roughly 5.5 million tonnes per year remains constrained by high gas and feedstock costs, limiting the ability to fully offset reduced imports. The 2026 CBAM liability calculation, based on quarterly EU ETS auction prices, will add further price volatility. Importers may increasingly diversify toward domestic or low‑carbon sources, negotiate longer‑term contracts, and explore strategic stockpiling to hedge against tariff escalations. Monitoring the evolution of EU carbon pricing and the forthcoming tariff revisions will be critical for French fertilizer firms aiming to maintain competitiveness in a tightening market.