From War to Weather: A 'Super El Niño' Event Poses Fresh Risks to Global Food Costs

Why It Matters

The dual shock could trigger a new wave of food‑price inflation, threatening supply chains and amplifying hunger in vulnerable regions.

Key Takeaways

• Super El Niño raises drought risk for key grain‑producing regions
• Iran‑Hormuz conflict cuts about one‑third of fertilizer shipments
• Food‑insecure population could rise by 45 million if war persists
• Cocoa, rice, sugar and coffee prices likely to surge
• Climate finance needed to help low‑readiness producers adapt

Pulse Analysis

The 2026 climate outlook is dominated by a high probability of a “super El Niño”, a rare warming of the eastern Pacific that pushes sea‑surface temperatures at least 2 °C above normal. S. meteorologists assign a one‑in‑three chance of a strong event between October and December, while European models suggest an even greater likelihood. Historically, such episodes trigger intense droughts in the Americas, Southeast Asia and Africa, curtailing yields of staples like rice, wheat and maize.

As global temperatures climb, the frequency of these extreme ENSO phases is expected to rise, adding a new layer of uncertainty for agricultural planners. Compounding the climate threat, the ongoing Iran‑Hormuz confrontation has strangled roughly one‑third of the world’s seaborne fertilizer trade. The strait, a critical conduit for natural‑gas‑derived nitrogen, has seen shipping traffic collapse after February airstrikes, sending urea and ammonia prices soaring. Fertilizer costs now sit well above pre‑war levels, squeezing farm margins just as planting season begins in the United States. Because modern agriculture depends on energy‑intensive inputs, higher gas and oil prices translate directly into elevated food‑price inflation, especially for commodities already vulnerable to weather swings such as cocoa and coffee.

The convergence of a super El Niño and persistent geopolitical tension could push the number of people facing acute hunger up by 45 million, according to the UN World Food Programme. Regions like Ethiopia, South Sudan and Brazil are poised to experience crop failures, while global markets may see sharp spikes in cocoa, rice, sugar and oilseed prices. Policymakers therefore face a dual mandate: secure short‑term fertilizer supplies and invest in climate‑resilient farming. Targeted climate finance from wealthier nations to low‑readiness producers, along with coordinated trade agreements, will be essential to dampen volatility and protect food security.