Indian DAP Stocks Fall Again in January

Why It Matters

The tightening of DAP inventories pressures fertilizer pricing and could affect crop planning, while the TSP import boom signals shifting supply dynamics in India’s agribusiness sector.

Key Takeaways

• January DAP imports fell to 70,000 tonnes
• Stocks at 1.9 million tonnes, fourth monthly draw
• Production steady, sales exceeded three‑year average
• Year‑on‑year DAP stocks up 600,000 tonnes
• TSP imports rose 145% boosting stocks dramatically

Pulse Analysis

India’s fertilizer landscape is entering a nuanced phase as DAP inventories contract despite a robust import year. The rabi season, which began in October, has seen domestic production remain flat while imports collapsed to a mere 70,000 t in January. This divergence stems from importers prioritising urea shipments, leaving fewer berths for DAP cargoes. Consequently, the stock draw of 573,000 t reflects a supply‑demand mismatch that can tighten market fundamentals and lift spot prices, especially as farmers balance nutrient mixes for winter crops.

The short‑term depletion is tempered by a healthier year‑to‑date picture. Earlier in the fertilizer year, from April onward, India imported over 6 million tonnes of DAP, well above the 4.4 million tonnes a year earlier. That front‑loaded import strategy, combined with steady domestic output, has built a buffer of roughly 600,000 t compared with the same period last year. However, the lag in total off‑take—sales trailing by about 200,000 t—suggests that demand may be shifting toward urea or that growers are deferring DAP purchases until the kharif planting window in April.

A parallel story unfolds with triple‑super phosphate (TSP). With no domestic production, India’s reliance on Moroccan imports has exploded, raising TSP imports by 145% and swelling stocks by more than 500% since April 2024. This surge helps offset the DAP shortfall, offering farmers an alternative phosphorus source. Yet the rapid import growth raises questions about supply chain capacity, freight availability, and potential price volatility. Stakeholders will watch government policy, especially any adjustments to import duties or subsidies, as they could reshape the balance between DAP and TSP and influence the broader agricultural input market.