NCGA Survey Reveals Growing Fertilizer Cost and Supply Concerns Among U.S. Corn Farmers

Key Takeaways

• Farmers need 185 bushels of corn per ton of urea, record high
• Concerns for 2027 fertilizer costs double those for 2026
• Mosaic and J.R. Simplot lobby for duties on Moroccan phosphate imports
• Fertilizer prices rose after Middle East conflict, still below 2022 peak
• NCGA surveys show growing supply anxiety among U.S. corn growers

Pulse Analysis

The fertilizer market has entered a new era of volatility, driven by geopolitical shocks and lingering trade barriers. The recent closure of the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing tensions in the Middle East have constrained phosphate shipments, prompting U.S. producers to lean on countervailing duties to protect domestic pricing. While these duties keep foreign competition at bay, they also elevate the cost of essential inputs for corn growers, creating a feedback loop that amplifies price pressures across the agricultural supply chain.

At the farm level, the economics of corn production are tightening dramatically. Declining corn prices combined with the record‑high corn‑to‑urea ratio mean that each bushel yields less purchasing power for fertilizer, squeezing profit margins. Producers are forced to make hard choices between input quality, acreage, and risk mitigation strategies such as forward contracts or alternative nutrient sources. The heightened concern for the 2027 crop year suggests that many farmers anticipate a prolonged period of cost inflation, which could trigger acreage reductions or a shift toward less input‑intensive crops.

Policy and industry responses will shape the next few years of U.S. corn production. Lobbying by Mosaic and J.R. Simplot for sustained duties reflects a broader debate over trade protection versus market liberalization. Simultaneously, the NCGA’s data may spur federal agencies to consider emergency assistance programs or incentives for domestic fertilizer innovation. Diversifying supply chains—through increased recycling of nutrients or investment in alternative fertilizers—could mitigate future shocks, ensuring that U.S. corn remains competitive in global markets.