Ongoing War Stifles Ukraine’s Grain Exports

Why It Matters

Grain exports represent over half of Ukraine’s export earnings and a critical source of funding for its wartime economy; the sharp decline threatens domestic stability and global food supply chains.

Key Takeaways

• Monthly grain shipments fell from 3.6 Mt to 2.5 Mt.
• YTD exports down 28.5%, value down 18%.
• Forecast cut 10.4%; stocks rise to 11.5 Mt.
• Russian port attacks cause blackouts, loading delays.
• Moscow plans vessel bans, distorting Black Sea trade.

Pulse Analysis

Ukraine supplies roughly a tenth of the world’s wheat and corn, with the Black Sea corridor handling over 90% of its agricultural exports. The war‑driven destruction of port terminals, chronic blackouts, and disrupted rail links have turned a once‑efficient supply chain into a bottleneck, forcing exporters to delay vessels and absorb higher insurance premiums. As monthly volumes fell to 2.5 Mt, the country’s export earnings dropped 18%, tightening the fiscal space needed for both civilian reconstruction and defense procurement.

The logistical shock has forced analysts to slash the 2025‑26 grain export outlook by more than 10%, while projected ending stocks swell to 11.5 Mt—an excess of 4‑5 Mt of wheat, corn and barley that cannot reach markets. With port capacity constrained, Ukrainian traders are increasingly turning to rail, a costlier and slower alternative that still accounts for only 7‑8% of shipments. Higher freight rates, coupled with rising vessel insurance costs, are eroding profit margins and limiting the country’s ability to honor existing contracts, further denting confidence among international buyers.

Beyond Ukraine’s borders, the export slump reverberates through global food markets already strained by climate shocks and geopolitical tensions. Russia’s strategy of offering politically‑favoured trade terms and threatening to bar vessels that have called Ukrainian ports adds a layer of market distortion, potentially redirecting cargo to alternative routes such as Romanian or Bulgarian terminals. Policymakers in the EU and the United States are therefore weighing support measures—ranging from insurance guarantees to infrastructure aid—to keep Ukrainian grain flowing, safeguard food security, and prevent a prolonged supply shock that could elevate prices worldwide.

Ongoing war stifles Ukraine’s grain exports

File photo: Titan Machinery Bila Tserkva

UKRAINIAN grain exports have been severely curtailed in the first seven months of the 2025‑26 marketing year, as Russia intensifies its relentless attacks on the beleaguered nation’s Black Sea ports and energy infrastructure, creating logistical challenges across the entire supply chain.

The Black Sea corridor remains the primary and most cost‑effective route to international markets for the country’s agricultural produce, accounting for over 90 percent of export movements each season. Rail transport handles around 7‑8 percent, with the remainder moving by road.

Destruction, bottlenecks

The periodic strikes have led to widespread blackouts across entire regions, unscheduled shutdowns at damaged port terminals, destruction of processing facilities, and significant energy supply disruptions to port terminals and the rail network. Loading capacity has diminished as a result, leading to extended vessel delays and rescheduling, a costly exercise for exporters.

The ensuing logistical bottlenecks have slashed monthly shipping volumes, potentially leaving Ukraine with a large stockpile of unsold grain coming into this year’s harvest. While Ukraine has managed to increase its agricultural output despite the war, the resulting surplus remains trapped due to the systematic destruction of port and logistics infrastructure. In the first six months of the 2024‑25 marketing year, shipments of barley, corn, and wheat collectively averaged 3.6 million tonnes (Mt) per month; that fell to 2.5 Mt per month in the first six months of 2025‑26.

Ukraine’s total grain exports in December tumbled by 16 percent year on year amid the significant disruptions to shipping operations. Wheat exports were almost 25 percent lower, and corn shipments slumped by 13 percent compared to the previous corresponding period.

Year to date down 28.5 percent

According to data from Ukraine’s State Customs Service, grain and legume exports from Ukraine in the current marketing year to February 9 totalled 19.5 Mt, which is 7.8 Mt, or 28.5 percent, less than the previous season. Wheat shipments accounted for 43.6 percent of the total, with 8.5 Mt, 25.8 percent, or 3 Mt lower than the same period in 2024‑25.

Executed barley sales to international customers amounted to 1.3 Mt in the 32 weeks, 36.5 percent, or 800,000 t lower than 12 months earlier. The customs data put corn exports 29.4 percent, or 3.9 Mt lower at 9.4 Mt. Flour exports totalled 39,500 t, which is 14 percent less than last season’s figure, of which 38,400 t was wheat flour.

In monetary terms, the value of 2025‑26 grain exports has decreased by 18 percent compared to the same period last season. Every month that shipments decrease, hundreds of millions of dollars in foreign‑currency revenue disappear, money that would otherwise fund both civilian needs and critical defense capabilities.

Ukraine exported US$22.6 billion in agricultural products in 2025, roughly 56 percent of the country’s total exports. Agriculture has become the backbone of Ukraine’s wartime economy. The National Bank of Ukraine expects a further US$1 billion decrease in export earnings in the first quarter of 2026 alone, which it says could force a costly reorientation toward a European rail‑based export corridor.

According to the Ukrainian Agri Council, wheat exports in the first nine days of this month totalled just 27,000 t, a fraction of the 700,000 t contracted for shipment in February. In January, 620,000 t of wheat was contracted for shipment, with 536,000 t executed. In December, 1 Mt sales were in place, and just 586,000 t left the country.

“Not everything is OK with logistics. Ports cannot operate at full capacity due to blackouts, and wheat is competing with corn, which is loaded first,” UAC said in its weekly report.

Ukraine agricultural consultancy APK‑Inform reacted to the sharp decline in shipping volumes last week, slashing its 2025‑26 grain export forecast by 10.4 percent. The agency now expects grain exports to total 40.5 Mt, 4.7 Mt lower than its early‑season forecast of 45.2 Mt.

The wheat export projection was revised down from 16.7 Mt to 14.5 Mt, the early‑season corn estimate of 25.5 Mt was reduced to 23.5 Mt, while the barley forecast was cut from 2.5 Mt to 2 Mt. The drastically reduced export forecast means that APK‑Inform’s 2025‑26 ending stocks estimate has been increased from 6.8 Mt to 11.5 Mt. The higher carry‑out projection would include 4 Mt wheat, 4.3 Mt corn and 2 Mt barley.

APK‑Inform said that the changes were necessary due to “low export rates as a result of constant shelling by Russian forces of Ukraine’s port and energy infrastructure”. Harvest delays, particularly corn, unfavourable market conditions and increases in vessel insurance premiums are also reported to have contributed to the export lag.

Russia ups the ante

According to Deputy Economy Minister Taras Vysotsky, the logistical challenge is further complicated by Moscow’s use of political leverage rather than fair competition in global markets. Russia affords purchasing companies and governments more favourable trade terms rather than competing on price alone, winning customers politically rather than using economic benefits, Vysotsky said.

In addition, Moscow reportedly plans to ban vessels that have previously visited Ukrainian, Romanian, or Bulgarian ports from entering Russian territorial waters to load at Black Sea terminals, codifying new restrictive criteria for shipowners and operators. Beyond port calls, the criteria for restrictions is believed to include any changes in vessel ownership, flag, or homeport within the past 10 voyages.