OPEC Report Shows Oil Demand Reached Over 105MMBpd in 2025

Why It Matters

Higher demand and expanding supply tighten the balance of the global oil market, influencing price volatility and investment decisions. The UAE’s departure could reshape OPEC+ coordination, affecting future output policies.

Key Takeaways

• OPEC forecasts 2025 demand at 105.15 MMbpd, +1.30 MMbpd YoY
• Global crude output rises to 74.85 MMbpd, led by OPEC+ members
• UAE announces exit from OPEC and OPEC+ effective May 1, 2026
• EIA projects 2025 supply 106.30 MMbpd, outpacing demand
• Non‑OECD regions drive most demand growth, especially Asia and Africa

Pulse Analysis

The latest OPEC Annual Statistical Bulletin signals a robust rebound in oil consumption, with demand projected at 105.15 million barrels per day for 2025. This marks the first time demand has breached the 105 MMbpd threshold since the early 2010s, underscoring the accelerating energy needs of emerging economies. Growth is concentrated in non‑OECD markets—China, India, and Africa—where rising incomes and industrialization are fueling a sustained uptick in transportation and petrochemical usage. Analysts view this demand trajectory as a catalyst for renewed capital spending in upstream projects and downstream refining capacity.

On the supply side, OPEC and its DoC partners are set to increase crude output to an average of 74.85 million barrels per day, reflecting coordinated production hikes across Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and other members. However, the United Arab Emirates’ decision to withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ introduces a new variable into the cartel’s output discipline. While the UAE’s production share is modest, its exit may signal broader strategic realignments among Gulf states, potentially weakening OPEC’s ability to manage market balance and prompting non‑OPEC producers to adjust their own output strategies.

U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts paint a slightly different picture, estimating 2025 global petroleum consumption at 103.97 million barrels per day and total supply at 106.30 million barrels per day. The surplus of roughly 2.3 MMbpd suggests short‑term downward pressure on prices, yet the convergence of rising demand, OPEC’s production expansion, and geopolitical shifts creates a complex outlook. Stakeholders—from investors to policymakers—must monitor how OPEC’s coordination evolves post‑UAE exit and how non‑OPEC producers respond to the emerging supply‑demand dynamics.