Poland's Ferrous Scrap Exports Fall; Ukraine Imports Hit Record

Why It Matters

The shift signals weakening demand in traditional Asian markets and a growing reliance on regional supply, reshaping European scrap pricing and steel‑mill feedstock strategies.

Key Takeaways

• Exports fell 8.6% to 1.204 Mt in 2025
• US shipments doubled to 68,560 t
• Turkey remained top buyer, up 2.4%
• Imports hit 340 k t, driven by Ukraine
• Domestic steel output rose 0.8% to 7.17 Mt

Pulse Analysis

Poland’s recent export contraction reflects a broader realignment in global ferrous scrap demand. While the country remains a heavyweight supplier—its 2025 volumes still 70% above the 2015‑2025 average—softening orders from India, Pakistan and Morocco have eroded growth. These markets, traditionally price‑sensitive, are grappling with tighter steel‑making margins and shifting domestic policies, prompting buyers to trim imports. Consequently, price spreads for European scrap have narrowed, pressuring Polish exporters to seek higher‑value destinations such as the United States, where shipments surged more than two‑fold.

At the same time, Ukraine’s escalating scrap exports have turned Poland into a net importer for the first time in years. The 28.6% jump to 340,000 tonnes underscores the geopolitical ripple effects of the ongoing conflict, as Ukrainian mills redirect material to nearby processing hubs. Polish steel producers benefit from this influx, securing a stable feedstock supply that supports the modest 0.8% rise in domestic crude‑steel output. However, the surge also raises questions about long‑term dependency on conflict‑driven flows and the potential for price volatility if Ukrainian shipments waver.

Looking ahead, Poland’s scrap trade will likely hinge on diversification and policy adaptation. Strengthening logistics to Asian markets, investing in value‑added processing, and monitoring EU trade regulations could mitigate future demand shocks. For steelmakers across Europe, Poland’s mixed export‑import picture offers both a cautionary tale of market concentration and an opportunity to leverage regional scrap as a resilient input amid global supply uncertainties.