TC Energy Forecasts Natural Gas Demand Surge Equivalent to Entire European Market

Why It Matters

The forecast signals a transformative growth phase for North American gas, reshaping global supply dynamics and prompting significant infrastructure investment.

Key Takeaways

• North America demand up 45 Bcf/d by 2035.
• Growth driven by LNG exports and power generation.
• Midwest adds 1.5 Bcf/d new capacity bids.
• Demand equals whole European market size.
• Winter price spikes hit $50/MMBtu in Jan 2026.

Pulse Analysis

The projected 45 Bcf/d demand increase positions North America as a net exporter of natural gas, challenging the traditional import‑export balance that has defined the global market for decades. LNG terminal expansions along the Gulf Coast and West Coast are unlocking new pathways to Asian and European buyers, while domestic power generators are pivoting toward gas‑fired capacity to meet decarbonization targets. This dual‑track growth amplifies the strategic importance of pipeline reliability and storage assets, prompting utilities to invest heavily in grid‑scale flexibility.

Midwest expansion plans, highlighted by 1.5 Bcf/d of new bid volume, illustrate regional diversification of demand sources. Historically reliant on coal and nuclear, the region’s utilities are increasingly turning to gas to support baseload and peak loads, driven by lower emissions standards and the need for rapid ramp‑up capabilities. The surge also reflects heightened reliability concerns among distribution companies, which are seeking to buffer against extreme weather events that have historically strained supply chains.

Price volatility, exemplified by the January 2026 spike to nearly $50/MMBtu in the Columbia Gas market, underscores the market’s sensitivity to weather extremes and infrastructure constraints. Such spikes can accelerate investment in hedging mechanisms, storage facilities, and demand‑response programs. For investors and policymakers, the forecast signals a compelling case for supportive regulatory frameworks that facilitate capital deployment while ensuring market stability and energy security across the continent.