Turkey Set to Take $14bn Hit From Hormuz Crisis

Why It Matters

The added $14 bn pressure threatens Turkey’s trade balance and could force policy shifts toward energy diversification. It also underscores the geopolitical risk of the Hormuz chokepoint for import‑dependent economies.

Key Takeaways

• Turkey's energy import bill could rise $14 bn in 2026
• Oil costs add $7.7 bn; gas adds $6.4 bn to imports
• Hormuz crisis could add 30% to Turkey's annual import bill
• Road transport accounts for one-third of fossil fuel import costs
• Current‑account deficit narrowed to $5.7 bn in April 2026

Pulse Analysis

The Strait of Hormuz, a conduit for roughly one‑fifth of global oil and LNG, has become a flashpoint after the US‑Israel conflict with Iran. Price spikes—Brent up 50% and European gas up 45%—have rippled through markets, hitting Turkey hard because 95% of its natural‑gas and 83% of its crude oil are imported. Ember’s June report projects a $14 bn surge in the country’s energy import bill, a shock that dwarfs the typical $42 bn annual spend and rivals the $80 bn peak seen during the Russia‑Ukraine war.

The bulk of the extra cost stems from sectors that burn fossil fuels directly. Road transport alone will shoulder about a third of the added expense, while industry, households and power generation each absorb roughly 16%. This pattern mirrors Turkey’s historic reliance on imported energy—two‑thirds of total consumption—making the nation vulnerable to external supply shocks. Although the current‑account gap narrowed to $5.7 bn in April, the cumulative deficit for the first four months of 2026 remains high at $29.4 bn, highlighting the fiscal strain of soaring import bills.

Policymakers now face a stark choice: accelerate diversification toward renewables and domestic gas, or absorb higher costs through fiscal adjustments and potentially higher consumer prices. The Hormuz tension may persist, prompting Turkey to explore strategic reserves, negotiate longer‑term supply contracts, and invest in energy efficiency. In the medium term, the crisis could catalyze a faster transition to cleaner energy sources, reducing exposure to volatile geopolitics and stabilizing the trade balance.