Metals Movers (Argus series within Argus Media feed)
Driving Discussions: The Gasoline Glut - Markets Out of Balance
Metals Movers (Argus series within Argus Media feed)
•February 18, 2026•40 min
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Metals Movers (Argus series within Argus Media feed)•Feb 18, 2026
Why It Matters
Understanding the shifting gasoline market is crucial for investors, refiners, and policy makers as it signals where profit margins may tighten or expand in 2026. The discussion highlights how the transition to EVs and new refinery capacity will alter trade flows, affecting energy security and pricing globally.
Key Takeaways
- •Dangote refinery cut European gasoline exports to West Africa.
- •Asian gasoline cracks hit two‑to‑three year highs in 2025.
- •EV adoption drives structural gasoline demand decline in China.
- •Indonesia’s potential E10 mandate could reshape regional trade flows.
- •US gasoline demand fell 2025 due to efficiency, not EVs.
Pulse Analysis
The 2025 gasoline market was defined by a dramatic supply shift in the Atlantic Basin. Nigeria’s Dangote refinery, with its 650,000‑bpd capacity, ramped up output, slashing European gasoline exports to West Africa from 340,000 to 130,000 barrels per day. This disruption pushed non‑oxy refining margins to a 26‑month peak of $28.50 per barrel in November, while Asian gasoline cracks climbed to two‑to‑three‑year highs as European sanctions on Russian oil and refinery outages tightened global balances.
Demand dynamics also evolved sharply. In China, electric vehicles captured over 30% of new‑car sales, and plug‑in hybrids often run on electricity, accelerating a structural decline in gasoline consumption. The United States saw a modest demand drop driven primarily by higher vehicle efficiency after the September removal of the EV tax credit, not by EV uptake. Meanwhile, Indonesia’s tentative E10 blending mandate and India’s expanding fleet kept regional demand buoyant, offsetting some of the global pull‑back.
Looking ahead to 2026, supply will be reshaped by new refining capacity in India—Rajasthan, NRL, and Panipat expansions—and modest growth in the Middle East, particularly Iraq and Iran. China’s export quota remains capped at roughly 41 million barrels annually, limiting its ability to fill any shortfall. European refiners are responding; Phillips 66’s Humber project aims to improve gasoline quality for alternative markets by 2027. Together, these trends suggest a tighter, more regionally diversified gasoline market, where policy shifts, EV penetration, and emerging capacities will dictate price volatility and trade flows.
Episode Description
As part of our 5-part series looking into the outlook for refined products in 2026, this episode takes a deep dive into the global gasoline market.
The global gasoline market saw unseasonable strength in the final quarter of 2025, and this episode breaks down what’s behind it. We also discuss how EV adoption, policy shifts, and blending mandates are reshaping demand across key regions, assess the impact of new mega‑refineries on traditional trade flows, and highlight the critical drivers to watch as we move into 2026.
Gasoline cracks surprised to the upside in late 2025, peaking in November across Europe and Asia as widespread refinery maintenance in Asia and the Middle East tightened supply. But moving further into 2026, gasoline cracks are expected to come under pressure from more consistent gasoline supply and lengthening balances, particularly in the Atlantic Basin.
Listen to our market experts, Emma Pike - Gasoline Analyst, George Maher-Bonnett – Deputy Editor and Asill Bardh – Senior Reporter, as they discuss the latest developments shaping the global gasoline market, reflect on how it evolved through 2025, and outline the critical drivers to watch as we move into 2026.
Show Notes
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