Fertilizer Matters EP42: China’s Green Ammonia Expansion

The latest Argus Fertilizer Matters episode highlights China’s rapid scaling of green ammonia, with three operational plants now delivering roughly 700,000 tonnes per year. Envision Energy’s Inner Mongolia facility contributes 320,000 tonnes, SPIC Zilin’s Jinin plant adds 180,000 tonnes, and CEC’s Song Yuan complex begins with 200,000 tonnes in Phase 1, expanding to 400,000 tonnes later. All three rely on large‑scale wind or solar farms that feed off‑grid renewable power into electrolyzers, allowing virtually emission‑free synthesis. This makes China the first Asian nation to achieve sustained commercial green ammonia output beyond pilot projects.

Domestic sales dominate the current market, with Chinese green ammonia priced between ¥4,800 and ¥6,800 per tonne – a clear premium over the ¥460‑¥470 per tonne grey ammonia benchmark. Producers are selling at near‑cost levels, reflecting the absence of direct subsidies for ammonia itself, only for renewable electricity generation. Export ambitions focus on maritime bunkering and power‑plant co‑firing, supported by agreements with Japanese trader Marubeni and CNBPAC, and a dedicated storage terminal slated for 2027. Expected FOB offers of $600‑$700 per tonne remain competitive for ship‑to‑ship bunkering projects.

Policy uncertainty tempers the growth trajectory. The International Maritime Organization’s postponement of its net‑zero fuel framework and South Korea’s wavering co‑firing plans could delay large‑scale adoption of clean ammonia in shipping. Nonetheless, a pipeline of 1.6 million tonnes slated for 2027 from developers such as Mintel Group and Tianning Energy signals continued capacity expansion. Europe’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, effective January 2026, may create a niche for Chinese green ammonia as fertilizer producers seek lower carbon inputs. Infrastructure upgrades at ports like Lianyungang and Dalian will be crucial for unlocking these export opportunities.