Metals Movers (Argus series within Argus Media feed)
Market Talks: Market Moves Since the Fertilizer Latino Americano Conference
Metals Movers (Argus series within Argus Media feed)
•February 26, 2026•17 min
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Metals Movers (Argus series within Argus Media feed)•Feb 26, 2026
Why It Matters
Understanding these market dynamics is crucial for farmers, traders, and investors who must navigate rising input costs and limited supply while planning crop strategies. The episode highlights emerging risks for the 2026‑27 planting season, making it timely for anyone involved in South American agriculture and global fertilizer supply chains.
Key Takeaways
- •Brazilian nitrogen demand stalls; urea replaced by EMSL.
- •Fertilizer prices rise 10-20% post‑FLA, buyers hesitant.
- •Potash deals continue; price most attractive per nutrient.
- •Paraguay and Argentina show low fertilizer liquidity, limited deals.
- •2025 Brazil deliveries forecast 49 Mt, nutrient content barely increases.
Pulse Analysis
The week after the Fertilizer Latino‑Americano (FLA) conference, Brazil’s nitrogen market entered a stand‑still. Prices for urea and other nitrogen products jumped roughly 10‑20 percent, tracking global trends and China’s announced cut in papyrloctam capacity. Buyers, however, retreated from the market, leaving only a handful of RIA deals and prompting a shift toward EMSL, which still offers a more attractive nutrient price point despite its own upward pressure. This price volatility, combined with limited new imports, has left Brazilian farmers reluctant to commit to the remaining 15 percent of their second‑crop nitrogen needs.
In the broader Southern Cone, liquidity remained thin across phosphate and potash segments. Paraguay and Argentina reported only sporadic one‑off transactions, with most sellers holding back firm offers to gauge global price movements. Potash continued to see modest weekly deals of 5‑15 kt, favored for its lower cost per nutrient compared with urea or MAP. Phosphate products such as MAP, DAP, and TSP faced dual headwinds: rising production costs and constrained supply, limiting volumes to the market. Meanwhile, sulfur‑linked fertilizers like SSP saw price hikes, dampening farmer adoption and reinforcing the overall cautious buying stance.
Looking ahead to 2025‑2026, Brazil is projected to deliver about 49 million tonnes of fertilizer, a modest increase over 2024 but with barely any nutrient uplift due to the shift toward lower‑grade products. Argentina’s deliveries are set to rise to 5.1 Mt, driven by a surge in urea imports after a prolonged shutdown at the domestic Profertile plant. Yet, both countries face looming challenges: uncertain import pipelines for phosphates, volatile sulfur prices, tighter credit conditions for growers, and commodity price pressure on soybeans and corn. These factors could compress yields and reshape financing strategies, making the next planting season a critical test for the regional fertilizer market.
Episode Description
The Fertilizer Latino Americano (FLA) conference was held in Miami in late January, with discussions about supply and changes in global trade flows. Renata Cardarelli and Gisele Augusto, who both contribute to the Argus Brazil Grains and Fertilizers report, talk about market developments in Brazil and the Southern Cone since the event.
Some of the topics discussed in this episode:
· Pace of nitrogen purchases for the second corn crop
· Mismatch between offers and bids
· Availability of imported product in Brazil
· Farmers’ preferences
· China’s caprolactam production
· Negotiations and price trends of different nutrients
· Farmers’ access to credit
Show Notes
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