Tuesday: Eyes on Australia Budget for Household Help

The episode opens with a 3 percent jump in Brent and WTI crude after former President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s latest peace proposal as “totally unacceptable.” The spike lifted U.S. equity indices to fresh record highs and nudged the 10‑year Treasury yield above 4.4 percent. Meanwhile, ANZ’s Adam Boynton warned that Australia’s federal budget, due at 7:30 pm Sydney time, will likely record a $36 billion Australian‑dollar deficit—about $24 billion U.S.—for 2026‑27, with modest cost‑of‑living measures expected. Investors are watching for any tax tweaks on investment properties that could affect household spending.

China’s April consumer‑price index rose 1.2 percent, outpacing forecasts, largely because gasoline prices surged 19 percent. Producer‑price inflation jumped to 2.8 percent, highlighting broader cost pressures. ANZ senior China strategist Xiaoping Xing noted that weak wage growth and household debt—urban debt equals 1.4 times disposable income—limit pass‑through of imported inflation to consumers, keeping overall CPI modest. The data arrives as U.S. non‑farm payrolls reinforce expectations that the Federal Reserve can pause rate hikes, while markets await core‑inflation numbers later in the week.

The deep‑dive segment turns to aluminium, where the Middle East conflict now threatens roughly three million tonnes of production capacity—about a 7 percent year‑on‑year drop in regional output. Because the region supplies nearly 20 percent of global primary aluminium, the shortfall pushes the European premium above $600 per tonne and could add $450 per tonne to smelter energy costs. LME inventories have already fallen 30 percent to 353,000 tonnes, eroding the buffer against further disruptions. With China capped at 45 million tonnes, the market deficit may widen to 2.7 million tonnes by 2026, tightening global supply.