Commodities Focus
US Aluminum Market Digests Tariff-Induced Volatility at Platts Symposium
Commodities Focus
•February 13, 2026•12 min
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Commodities Focus•Feb 13, 2026
Why It Matters
Understanding tariff‑driven market dynamics is crucial for producers, traders, and investors who must navigate price volatility and inventory constraints. The discussion is timely as policy changes and emerging demand sources like data centers reshape the aluminum sector, influencing strategic decisions across the supply chain.
Key Takeaways
- •Midwest premium surged to over $1 per pound.
- •50% tariff expected to stay through 2026.
- •Data center demand offsets construction and auto weakness.
- •US‑Canada trade uncertainty threatens 70% import reliance.
- •Supply remains tight; premium projected 75‑90 cents/pound.
Pulse Analysis
The recent Platts Aluminum Symposium in Miami highlighted how the U.S. aluminum market is grappling with unprecedented macro‑economic volatility. The Section 232 50% tariff, imposed by the Trump administration, has become a new baseline, prompting the Midwest premium to quadruple and now sit above a dollar per pound. Industry participants, from Wells Fargo analysts to EGA executives, agree the tariff will likely persist through 2026, embedding a higher cost structure into domestic pricing and reshaping trade dynamics.
Demand dynamics are equally mixed. While traditional end‑users such as construction and automotive sectors face headwinds—exacerbated by the phase‑out of electric‑vehicle incentives—new growth vectors are emerging. Packaging, electrical applications, and especially data‑center construction are driving fresh consumption for U.S. aluminum producers. This shift toward high‑tech, high‑volume projects partially offsets the weakening of legacy markets, creating a nuanced demand landscape that investors must monitor closely.
Looking ahead, supply constraints remain a dominant theme. With Canada supplying roughly 70% of primary aluminum imports, the upcoming USMCA review in July introduces significant uncertainty. Even as shipments from the Middle East and India arrive, they are largely pre‑committed, limiting spot‑market flexibility. Forecasts from S&P Global Energy suggest a modest global surplus but a persistently tight U.S. market, with premiums projected between 75 and 90 cents per pound through 2026. Stakeholders should prepare for continued price pressure, potential trade‑policy adjustments, and the strategic importance of securing reliable supply channels.
Episode Description
In this episode of the Commodities Focus Podcast by S&P Global Energy, host Tina Allagh, lead specialist for nonferrous metals pricing, is joined by senior nonferrous price reporter Colleen Ferguson, metals news reporter Anthony Rizkala and principal aluminum analyst Karen Norton to review the key industry and pricing takeaways from the Miami symposium Feb. 1-3.
How has the current macroeconomic backdrop, with 50% import duties in place since June, impacted sentiment within the domestic aluminum industry? What does the demand environment look like after the removal of electric vehicle incentives and the rise of data center construction? Within the physical aluminum market, what does spot activity look like as existing stocks continue to dwindle?
From current market drivers to the year's forecasted supply and demand balance globally, this episode explores the numerous uncertainties weighing on US aluminum trade.
Related link:
Specification Guide: Global Nonferrous Metals: global_nonferrous.pdf
Show Notes
In this episode of the Commodities Focus Podcast by S&P Global Energy, host Tina Allagh, lead specialist for nonferrous metals pricing, is joined by senior nonferrous price reporter Colleen Ferguson, metals news reporter Anthony Rizkala and principal aluminum analyst Karen Norton to review the key industry and pricing takeaways from the Miami symposium Feb. 1-3.
How has the current macroeconomic backdrop, with 50% import duties in place since June, impacted sentiment within the domestic aluminum industry? What does the demand environment look like after the removal of electric vehicle incentives and the rise of data center construction? Within the physical aluminum market, what does spot activity look like as existing stocks continue to dwindle?
From current market drivers to the year's forecasted supply and demand balance globally, this episode explores the numerous uncertainties weighing on US aluminum trade.
Related link:
Specification Guide: Global Nonferrous Metals: global_nonferrous.pdf
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