Apr 06 | Closing Market Report

Why It Matters

Farmers and agribusinesses must act now to hedge against possible price drops as war premiums recede, while leveraging the current favorable planting conditions to secure profitable sales.

Key Takeaways

• Corn futures hover near $4.50, modest daily gains.
• USDA reports show slight corn stock increase, soybean stocks rise.
• War premiums and high ammonia prices pressure future commodity prices.
• Record soybean crush margins signal strong demand but weak basis.
• Midwest rainfall improves soil moisture, supporting early planting progress.

Summary

The April 6 closing market report opened with a snapshot of commodity prices and broader market sentiment. Corn futures settled around $4.54, soybeans near $1,166, while oil and equities showed modest gains. Analysts noted a surprisingly quiet trading day as markets emerged from a three‑day holiday, setting the stage for the upcoming planting season.

Kurt Kimmel highlighted USDA’s upcoming weekly crop‑condition report, projecting wheat conditions at roughly 42% good‑to‑excellent and corn planting at 2‑4% nationally. USDA corn stocks edged higher by 25 million bushels, whereas soybean stocks rose 15 million bushels, reflecting strong demand and robust crush activity. The discussion turned to war premiums and soaring anhydrous ammonia prices, which could keep commodity prices elevated, while Ed Asen warned that despite record soybean crush margins of $2.43 per bushel, the underlying basis remains weak.

Key soundbites underscored the market’s tension: Kimmel warned that war premiums may erode once crops are in the ground, and Asen emphasized the unprecedented soybean crush margin—four times the 25‑year average—while noting expanding crushing capacity with twelve new plants in three years. Mark Russo reported widespread moderate‑to‑heavy rainfall across the corn belt, boosting top‑soil moisture and soil temperatures, especially in the southern Midwest, and setting a favorable backdrop for planting.

For producers, the convergence of high input costs, elevated but potentially fleeting premiums, and solid planting conditions suggests a narrow window to lock in sales. Hedging now could protect against a rapid price decline as war‑related premiums fade, while the weak basis signals that price strength may not be sustainable without continued demand and favorable weather.

Original Description

- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net

- Ed Usset, University of Minnesota

- Mark Russo, EverStream.ai

Trading on April 6, 2026, was quiet, reflecting slight price gains in corn and soybeans alongside a dip in wheat futures. Market analysts expect the upcoming USDA WASDE report to indicate tighter corn stocks driven by strong demand, offset by a potential slight increase in soybean carryout. Geopolitical tensions continue to support commodity prices through war premiums; however, analysts warn of significant downside risks once the crop is successfully planted.

Elevated fertilizer costs, with anhydrous ammonia projected at $860 per ton for the 2027 crop, combined with record board soybean crush margins at $2.43 per bushel, strongly favor a continued shift toward soybean acreage. Despite expanding domestic crushing capacity and bullish price scenarios, weak cash basis levels act as a red flag regarding the longevity of current futures rallies. Agricultural economists advise producers to proactively hedge or secure forward contracts to lock in profitable new-crop prices—such as November soybeans at $11.50 to $11.60 and December corn near $4.80—warning that historical trends frequently show prices deteriorating before harvest.

In the U.S. Corn Belt, widespread weekend rainfall successfully replenished soil moisture, creating favorable conditions and steady soil temperatures for the upcoming planting season. Conversely, prolonged dryness remains a major concern for the Hard Red Winter Wheat regions of the Plains, with upcoming forecasts offering only scattered and localized precipitation. In South America, an active late-season weather pattern is causing minor harvest delays for corn and soybeans across Brazil and Argentina. However, the added moisture is exceptionally beneficial for the critical growth stages of Brazil's safrinha, or second crop, corn.

★ Support this podcast ★ (https://willpledge.org)