Decoding Carbon Markets: CORSIA Trends & 2026 Forecast with Josh Cowley

Why It Matters

Understanding these supply‑demand shifts is critical for airlines to manage compliance costs and for investors to position in a market where regulatory changes could rapidly alter credit valuations.

Key Takeaways

• First CORSIA‑eligible credits issued, over 1.5 million registered so far
• Potential retroactive approvals could add 30 million credits, raising quality concerns
• Demand predictable; 13 airlines need ≥1 million credits in phase 1
• UK and France compliance lag, covering less than half obligations
• EU may shift to EUS in 2026, cutting demand roughly 20 percent

Summary

The video reviews the latest developments in the CORSIA carbon offset market and projects its trajectory through 2026, highlighting the first batch of CORSIA‑eligible credits and the regulatory environment shaping supply and demand.

In November, more than 1.5 million credits were tagged on the registry, while retroactive approvals could unlock an additional 30 million credits from previously excluded methodologies. Demand is anchored by predictable airline commitments—13 carriers already require at least one million credits in phase 1, with another 20 expected to reach that threshold. However, compliance gaps persist, as the UK and France have fulfilled less than half of their phase 1 obligations.

Examples cited include Hestian’s 1.5 million‑credit issuance and Vera’s newly approved methodology that could add 30 million credits, both of which have already moved market prices. The video also notes that the EU may replace CORSIA with its own EUS scheme after a 2026 review, a shift projected to shave roughly 20 percent off demand in phase 2.

These dynamics suggest short‑term price volatility and a tighter supply outlook, prompting airlines to weigh the risk of uncertainty against the need for compliance. Investors and project developers should monitor regulatory updates and retroactive approvals, as they will dictate market liquidity and credit quality through the next phase.

Original Description

Join carbon market expert Josh Cowley as he dives into the evolving landscape of CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation). In this insightful video, Josh unpacks the latest demand and supply trends, provides a short-term forecast, and explores the key drivers behind price movements as we approach 2026. Whether you're navigating the complexities of carbon markets or looking to stay ahead of industry shifts, this is a must-watch.

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