Feb 17 | Closing Market Report

Why It Matters

These dynamics directly influence farm income, planting decisions, and ethanol demand, while oil price volatility affects input costs and broader commodity market sentiment.

Key Takeaways

• Soybean market buoyed by China import hopes and strong crush numbers
• Seasonal sell‑off expected as Chinese New Year and USDA outlook forum approach
• Year‑round E15 ethanol bill stalled over refinery exemption disputes
• Oil inventories sit above five‑year average, keeping prices bearish
• Traders advised to target diesel futures near $220‑$225 for entry

Summary

The Feb. 17 Closing Market Report opened with a quick reminder about the upcoming All‑Day Outlook event before turning to the day’s agricultural price snapshot. Chicago March corn settled at $4.26, down 0.5%, while soybeans edged up a nickel on the back of a better‑than‑expected NOPA crush figure of 221.5 million bushels, signaling solid demand.

Naomi Bloom of Total Farm Marketing highlighted that soybean strength stems from speculative hopes of an extra 8 million metric tons of Chinese imports and higher bio‑fuel demand, but warned that the market may have already priced in the most optimistic news. With the Chinese New Year holiday curbing export purchases and the USDA’s Outlook Forum looming—where acre‑age estimates often temper bullish sentiment—she expects a seasonal pull‑back in corn, soy and wheat prices later this week.

The segment then shifted to policy, noting that year‑round E15 ethanol legislation remains deadlocked as midsize refiners seek exemptions, despite strong support from farm‑state politicians and the Trump administration. Concurrently, concerns over the US‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement resurfaced, with the White House flagging potential loopholes for Chinese goods. In the energy arena, Dave Chatterton described a bearish oil backdrop: U.S. crude inventories sit above the five‑year average, OPEC is poised to lift output, and geopolitical tensions—from Iran to Venezuela—inject volatility into diesel and gasoline markets. He suggested farmers and agribusinesses watch diesel futures, aiming for a $220‑$225 price window before committing contracts.

Original Description

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- Naomi Blohm, TotalFarmMarketing.com

- Dave Chatterton, SFMarketing.com

- Don Day, DayWeather.com

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