Feb 19 | Closing Market Report

Why It Matters

Negative 2026 grain budgets and new critical‑input designations pressure farmers to seek cost‑saving strategies, making the All‑Day Outlook event a vital resource for sustaining profitability.

Key Takeaways

• Corn and soybean futures show modest price movements, near flat.
• USDA outlook predicts lower ending stocks, but market already priced in.
• 2026 Illinois corn and soybean budgets project negative returns statewide.
• Glyphosate and phosphorus declared critical, granting producers immunity.
• Upcoming All Day Outlook event offers strategies to improve farm profitability.

Summary

The Feb 19 Closing Market Report from Illinois Public Media covered today’s commodity prices, USDA outlook releases, farm budget projections, a new Defense Production Act order, and a preview of the All‑Day Outlook event. Futures for corn, soybeans, wheat, livestock and energy moved only marginally, while the Dow slipped below 49,500. The segment then shifted to an interview with Kurt Kimmel of market.net, who dissected USDA’s A‑form supply‑demand numbers and highlighted acreage expectations and export forecasts. Kimmel noted that USDA’s projected corn ending stocks of 1.8 billion bushels were already baked into market pricing, and that soybean acreage estimates may be slightly high. He emphasized the looming influence of South American crops on U.S. prices and pointed out that soybean oil is testing the 60‑cent‑per‑pound barrier, suggesting strong crush activity despite modest oil stocks. The Farm Do team’s 2026 budget models painted a bleak picture: corn returns range from –$82 to –$38 per acre, while soybeans hover near break‑even, with only a few regions showing modest positive returns. A notable policy development was President Trump’s invocation of the Defense Production Act, designating glyphosate‑based herbicides and elemental phosphorus as critical to national defense and granting producers legal immunity. This move underscores the strategic importance of key agricultural inputs and could reshape supply chains. The report also promoted the upcoming All‑Day Outlook on March 3, urging producers to attend for actionable advice on weather, grain outlooks, and farm‑insurance strategies. Overall, the combined data signal tight profit margins for Illinois grain producers, heightened sensitivity to global weather patterns, and potential regulatory shifts affecting input availability. Attending the All‑Day Outlook may provide essential tools for navigating these challenges and improving farm profitability.

Original Description

ALL DAY AG OUTLOOK CONFERENCE

Tuesday, March 3 @ The Beef House

go.illinois.edu/alldayagoutlook

- Curt Kimmel, AgMarket.net

- Ag Forum and @farmdoc Figures

- Mike Tannura, Tstorm.net

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