May 13 | Closing Market Report

Why It Matters

The USDA revisions and tight global corn stocks raise the risk of supply squeezes and price volatility that could affect farmer marketing decisions, input purchasing and export dynamics; soybean prices remain vulnerable to demand shocks, especially from China. These developments heighten the importance of timely acreage data and weather outcomes for market direction and farm revenue this season.

Summary

USDA’s May WASDE shocked markets by sharply cutting hard red winter wheat yields and acres in the central and southern Plains, sparking a strong but uneven rally concentrated in hard red contracts while soft red wheat remained largely unchanged. Corn and soybean estimates were broadly in line with expectations; corn has underlying support from tight global stocks and regional dryness that could trim yields, while soybean prospects hinge on Chinese demand and long speculative fund positions. Market participants are weighing cautious new-crop corn sales and opportunistic catch-up sales for soybeans as volatility risks remain high around upcoming acreage updates and international developments. University of Illinois agronomists noted an early, accelerated planting season—particularly for soybeans—which complicates yield forecasts as the crop moves into critical stages amid mixed weather conditions.

Original Description

- Ag Markets with Greg Johnson

- Ragged Corn but a Good Start for IL Crops

- Ag Weather with Drew Lerner

In the May 13, 2026 edition of the Closing Market Report, host Todd Gleason discusses agricultural markets, planting progress, and weather conditions with three industry experts. 

Greg Johnson of TGM highlights a recent market rally driven by USDA significantly lowering yield and acreage estimates for hard red winter wheat, and he advises farmers to consider catching up on soybean crop sales while prices remain high. '

Next, University of Illinois agronomist Giovani Preza Fontes reports that Illinois corn and soybean planting is ahead of schedule, noting that the crops are off to a solid start despite some uneven emergence caused by fluctuating April temperatures. 

Finally, meteorologist Drew Lerner forecasts welcome warming across the Midwest corn belt, though he warns that impending heat and low humidity will further stress the already struggling hard red winter wheat crops in the High Plains.

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