Prepare Your Corn and Soybean Marketing for USDA's March 31 Acreage and Stocks Reports

Why It Matters

Understanding USDA acreage forecasts and aligning grain marketing with real‑time cost pressures helps producers mitigate risk, preserve cash flow, and maximize profitability in a volatile commodity environment.

Key Takeaways

• USDA report may show 96 million corn acres, similar to forecasts
• Soybean profitability currently exceeds corn due to higher prices and input costs
• Fertilizer and diesel price spikes increase corn production costs significantly
• Recommend selling half of grain before USDA release, half after
• Avoid round-number offer levels; set prices slightly below to evade technical resistance

Summary

The Egg Marketing IQ In‑Depth episode focused on how farmers should position corn and soybean sales ahead of the USDA’s March 31 acreage and stocks reports. Host Pam welcomed Nick Cholus of Farmers Keeper, who outlined the likely USDA numbers – roughly 96 million corn acres, a modest decline versus prior USDA expectations, and a rise in soybean acreage, partly shifting from unprofitable cotton.

Key insights included a clear profitability edge for soybeans, driven by stronger market prices and soaring input costs such as fertilizer and diesel, which have surged amid Middle‑East tensions. Cholus noted that many producers are breaking even on corn while seeing modest gains on beans, and warned that the ongoing war could keep fertilizer prices elevated, further compressing corn margins.

Cholus offered concrete tactics: “sell half before the report and half after,” avoiding the guesswork of timing USDA releases. He also advised against round‑number offer levels, suggesting bids a penny or two below psychological thresholds to sidestep technical trader resistance. Real‑world cost examples—$4‑$6 per gallon gasoline and record diesel prices—illustrated the cost pressures farmers face.

The takeaway for producers is to anchor decisions in farm‑specific budgets, spread sales to hedge against volatility, and monitor both market prices and input expenses. By doing so, they can protect margins regardless of whether USDA data surprises the market, ensuring a more resilient and profitable planting season.

Original Description

USDA's Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks reports on March 31 could move corn and soybean markets significantly, but trying to predict the outcome is a risky strategy for grain farmers. In this episode of Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, Nick Tsiolis, CEO and founder of Farmer's Keeper, shares practical marketing strategies to help farmers navigate the uncertainty surrounding Tuesday's acreage report.

Farmer's Keeper estimates farmers will plant about 96 million acres of corn this season, slightly higher than USDA's February Outlook Forum forecast of 94 million acres. This aligns with a recent Farm Futures survey showing farmers indicated they would plant approximately 96.4 million corn acres, down from 98.8 million acres planted in 2025. Whether these numbers will pop corn prices or sink soybean sales remains uncertain with limited information available before the official report.

Rather than betting on USDA's forecasting accuracy, Tsiolis urges farmers to take more definitive action with their grain marketing plans. He recommends avoiding the temptation to predict market highs and instead setting profitable pricing levels and sticking to a disciplined strategy. His approach centers on spreading out sales and hedging bets rather than trying to time the market perfectly around major USDA reports.

Tsiolis advises a half-before and half-after approach to corn and soybean sales surrounding the March 31 reports. This strategy helps farmers capture value regardless of whether the data surprises markets to the upside or downside. By splitting sales, farmers reduce the risk of missing opportunities while maintaining flexibility to respond to post-report price movements.

Another key insight involves setting offer levels strategically. Tsiolis recommends placing offers a penny or two below round numbers rather than at psychological price points like $5.00 for corn. Technical traders often create resistance levels at round numbers, so setting offers at $4.99 or similar levels can improve the likelihood of orders being filled. This small adjustment accounts for how market participants behave around key price thresholds.

The conversation emphasizes the importance of having a marketing strategy in place before major USDA reports rather than reacting emotionally to the data. With corn prices hovering near resistance levels and uncertainty surrounding planted acreage, farmers benefit from disciplined approaches that prioritize profitability over speculation.