U.S. Cotton Acres Expected to Be Down 3% in 2026

Why It Matters

A reduced planting acreage tightens U.S. cotton supply, pressuring prices and farmer profitability, while policy aid and shifting consumer sentiment will shape the industry's resilience amid synthetic‑fiber competition.

Key Takeaways

• U.S. cotton planting intent drops to 9 million acres, down 3.2%
• Mid‑South acreage projected to fall ~20%, Georgia lowest since 1993
• Production costs up 30% since 2018 while prices remain flat
• New farm‑bill adds $117/acre bridge payments and higher reference price
• Global cotton share fell to 20% as synthetic fibers surge

Summary

The National Cotton Council’s 45th annual early‑season planting intention survey and 2026 economic outlook reveal that U.S. cotton growers plan to plant roughly 9 million acres this spring, a 3.2% decline from last year and the lowest level since 2015. The forecast reflects broader financial pressure on producers, with four consecutive years of costs outpacing market revenue.

Key data points include a projected 20% drop in the Mid‑South region and Georgia’s acreage hitting its lowest since 1993, while the Southwest shows a modest increase due to limited alternative crops. Production costs are now about 30% higher than in 2018, yet cotton prices remain flat, prompting some growers to shift to lower‑cost commodities like soybeans. New farm‑bill measures—such as $117 per‑acre bridge assistance and a 14% higher reference price for seed cotton—aim to cushion the gap, though they won’t fully offset losses.

Dr. Jod Kimpichi highlighted that cotton’s share of global fiber consumption has halved from 40% in 2000 to roughly 20% today, underscoring intense competition from synthetic fibers. The council’s “Plant‑Not‑Plastic” campaign seeks to leverage consumer concerns about microplastics to revive demand. He also noted that while most policy priorities were addressed in the recent farm bill, additional support may still be needed to bridge remaining shortfalls.

The outlook suggests a potential turnaround in 2027 if world cotton production contracts and consumption modestly rises, creating inventory draws that could lift prices. However, growers face near‑term headwinds from high input costs, modest price signals, and synthetic‑fiber competition, making policy assistance and market dynamics critical for the sector’s recovery.

Original Description

U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 9.0 million cotton acres this spring, down 3.2 percent from 2025, according to the National Cotton Council’s 45th Annual Early Season Planting Intentions Survey. Dr. Jody Campiche, the NCC’s Vice President, Economics & Policy Analysis, joined us this past Thursday, February 19th, 2026 on Agriculture of America to discuss the survey and the new 2026 economic analysis by NCC.

#cotton #commodities #commoditymarket #agriculture #farming