Wheat and Crude Oil Continue Rally on Thursday

Why It Matters

The wheat breakout and oil‑driven commodity spreads redirect capital, while stagnant corn and tight cattle markets signal where risk‑adjusted opportunities lie for traders and producers.

Key Takeaways

• Wheat prices surge above 200‑day moving average for first time since June
• Dry Southwest weather and Black Sea concerns boost wheat bullish sentiment
• Crude oil’s war‑premium lifts soybean oil and broader energy complex
• Corn remains flat as inventories stay high and farmer sales lag
• Cattle cash prices stay firm amid tight supply and modest demand

Summary

The program highlighted a fresh rally in wheat futures alongside a jump in crude oil, while soybeans showed modest gains and corn stayed range‑bound.

Analysts attributed wheat’s upside to three “prongs”: unusually dry conditions across the Southwest, lingering Black Sea shipping risks from the Ukraine war, and a technical breakout above the 200‑day moving average—the first such close since June 2023. Crude oil added $5‑$6 per barrel on renewed Middle‑East tensions, feeding into higher soybean‑oil contracts. Corn, by contrast, lingered near unchanged levels as large stocks and ongoing farmer sales dampened buying interest.

Wheat has nine lives, one guest noted, highlighting farmer concerns over a 75°F winter day. The same guest described the wheat move as a short-cover rally supported by technical buying. On the protein side, cash cattle prices remained firm above the low‑240s, reflecting tight feed supplies, while dairy futures swung wildly but showed no clear directional bias.

For traders, the wheat breakout suggests a shift of managed money into the grain complex, while oil‑linked commodity spreads may stay elevated. Corn’s lackluster momentum warns against aggressive long positions until inventories ease, and the tight cattle market underscores continued price support for beef producers.

Original Description

Wheat and crude oil continued their rally on the back of weather and geopolitical risk in those markets. Corn and soybeans were quiet once again as USDA's Ag Outlook Forum projected smaller corn acres and higher soybean acres for the year ahead. Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing joins us to discuss the week in the grain and livestock markets. Find more at https://www.totalfarmarketing.com.

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