Why This Iowa-Brazil Farmer Is Selling Grain Now: War Rally Ending and Brazil Flooding Markets

Why It Matters

Locking in modest profits now helps farmers mitigate price declines from fading war premiums and Brazil’s flood of soybeans, preserving cash flow for the next planting cycle.

Key Takeaways

• Sell remaining grain now; seasonal peak around April‑May.
• War‑related premiums likely to fade, reducing corn and bean prices.
• Favorable U.S. weather outlook supports planting, but some regions risk excess rain.
• Brazil’s peak export window (May‑June) will pressure global soybean prices.
• Consider selling 20‑40% of crop now to lock modest profits.

Summary

The episode features Matthew Kruse, president of Comstock Investments, advising grain growers to consider selling their remaining inventories now as the seasonal price peak typically arrives in the April‑May window. He notes that the war‑driven premium that has buoyed corn and bean markets is beginning to wane, suggesting prices may retreat toward fundamentals. Kruse points to several data points: the April 11 rally that briefly lifted prices before a 60‑cent drop, a 40‑50‑cent overvaluation tied to geopolitical risk, and a generally favorable U.S. weather outlook with rain expected across the Corn Belt, though some areas could see excess moisture. He also highlights Brazil’s May‑June export surge, which is flooding the global soybean market and limiting upside potential for U.S. beans. Specific examples include current bean prices around $10.75 in northwest Iowa, a modest profit margin at $11.50 on the board, and corn needing higher yields to hit $5 per bushel. Kruse recommends locking in 20‑40% of the crop now to secure break‑even or slightly profitable levels rather than waiting for uncertain weather rallies. The takeaway for producers is to manage downside risk by taking modest sales now, given waning war premiums, solid domestic weather, and Brazil’s record harvests that could suppress prices later in the season.

Original Description

War-driven price premiums in grain markets may be creating one of the best selling opportunities farmers will see this year, according to Matthew Kruse, president of @commstockinvestments and a farmer with operations in both Iowa and Brazil. In this episode of Farm Futures Ag Marketing IQ In Depth, Kruse shares his perspective on why producers should consider pricing a significant portion of their 2026 crop while premiums remain elevated.

The ongoing war in Iran has driven up crude oil prices and influenced corn markets, but Kruse sees commodity markets beginning to stabilize as cooler heads prevail. Combined with favorable weather forecasts across much of the U.S. Corn Belt, conditions are setting up for strong yields and increased supply that could pressure prices lower.

Kruse emphasizes the importance of understanding Brazil's impact on global grain markets. China is being flooded with cheap soybeans from Brazil's record crops and favorable weather forecasts, creating robust global supply that reduces the likelihood of major price spikes. This makes it unlikely that U.S. soybean farmers will see significant demand increases, despite optimism around President Trump's planned meeting with China's President Xi.

For farmers with old crop remaining, Kruse recommends cleaning bins and selling now, citing seasonal trends that often peak in April or May. He advises focusing on profitability rather than waiting for potential rallies from weather events or new trade deals with China.

Kruse warns that downside risk feels greater than upside opportunity in current market conditions. He encourages producers to sell 20 to 40 percent of their crops to take some risk off the table, emphasizing that farmers don't need to sell everything at once but should get started with partial sales.

His unique perspective as both a trader and farmer operating in Iowa and Brazil provides valuable insights into global supply dynamics and market timing strategies.

Watch more episodes from the Farm Futures Ag Marketing IQ In Depth series on the Farm Progress YouTube channel.