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Andreas Steno Larsen

Andreas Steno Larsen

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Founder, Steno Research; macro strategist on growth, inflation, policy, and cross-asset drivers impacting U.S. equities.

Recent Posts

Trump's Tariff Threats Persist, Undermining Economic Certainty
Social•Feb 21, 2026

Trump's Tariff Threats Persist, Undermining Economic Certainty

If you thought Trump would stop throwing around tariffs right, left, and centre after Friday’s ruling, think twice… I still think the impact is blown out of proportion by the media, but it does affect economic sentiment due to the lack of certainty. https://t.co/mIRnLqvyF5

By Andreas Steno Larsen
Falling CPI‑PCE Spread Signals Declining Inflation, Defying Q4 GDP
Social•Feb 20, 2026

Falling CPI‑PCE Spread Signals Declining Inflation, Defying Q4 GDP

When the CPI-PCE spread heads lower (the spread is cyclical), it is because inflation is going lower. CPI is what matters.. End of discussion The economy is currently doing the opposite of that Q4 GDP report https://t.co/xBUcAxE1EP

By Andreas Steno Larsen
Philadelphia Fed: Economic Activity Rises While Inflation Falls
Social•Feb 19, 2026

Philadelphia Fed: Economic Activity Rises While Inflation Falls

Philly Fed survey just out. Activity UP, prices DOWN. Not too bad. See attached https://t.co/lodqOUkSnH

By Andreas Steno Larsen
Nowcast IQ Predicts US Growth Despite Market Pessimism
Social•Feb 17, 2026

Nowcast IQ Predicts US Growth Despite Market Pessimism

A few of our weekly inputs have come in for US growth. We continue to rebound hard cyclically. EURUSD down, US assets (soon) up, and ISM PMI towards 60 by summer. Our Nowcast IQ is telling a VERY contrarian story to...

By Andreas Steno Larsen
Strategists Misread CapEx, Overhype Free Cash Flow
Social•Feb 15, 2026

Strategists Misread CapEx, Overhype Free Cash Flow

I love how boomer strategists present the chart on free cash flows from the Mag 7 as rocket science. We learned on the first days at university that CapEx means less FCF in that year. Do these guys understand anything whatsoever...

By Andreas Steno Larsen
Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises
Social•Feb 13, 2026

Banks' Inflation Forecasts Politicized, Yield Soft Surprises

Another SOFT inflation surrpise... It has become a bit of a theme, and we are increasingly convinced that inflation forecasting has become a "politicized arena" within banks, given how incredibly stubborn they have been in their wrong lean on this.

By Andreas Steno Larsen
New Investors Shift From Tech to Industrials, Energy, Metals
Social•Feb 12, 2026

New Investors Shift From Tech to Industrials, Energy, Metals

How is the "newborn" buy industrials, energy and metals instead of tech crowd feeling today?

By Andreas Steno Larsen
Market Shifts to AI Fear, Not Bubble, Concerns
Social•Feb 12, 2026

Market Shifts to AI Fear, Not Bubble, Concerns

The market is more in “AI fear” mode than “AI bubble” mode currently Everyone fears the left tail in their business

By Andreas Steno Larsen
Cyclical Growth Rises While Inflation Falls—A Rare Forecast
Social•Feb 9, 2026

Cyclical Growth Rises While Inflation Falls—A Rare Forecast

Our nowcasts suggest that cyclical growth is going up and inflation is going down. No one forecasts this cocktail

By Andreas Steno Larsen