Recent Posts
Social•Feb 19, 2026
Buybacks Drop as Capex Takes Priority, ESO Dilution Fades
There are two reasons why buybacks are falling and likely to fall more 1. CApex as a use of FCF is deemed more important than share count reduction or SBC dilution offset 2. To the extent stocks fade the ESO awards provided as SBC stay out of the money and so dilution doesn't occur. The former is just starting to happen. The latter is likely to be procyclical with further poor heavy ESO awarding companies
By Andy Constan
Social•Feb 17, 2026
New DSR Highlights Debt‑Equity Promise for Hyperscalers
New DSR released to clients. Part 3 in the Hamburger Series - Hyperscalers. As a reminder the idea is that to get a hamburger today one needs to promise to repay (issue debt and equity) on tuesday. ...
By Andy Constan
Social•Feb 17, 2026
Meta's Compute Spend Aims Solely at Internal Profit
$META is an interesting case. Make a massive compute investment entirely for internal needs. Unlike virtually any of the big data center spend which in other cases is partly internal and partly to rent to others, META ROI seems...
By Andy Constan