LLMs Overhype Nuclear Wargaming; Real Value Lies Elsewhere
In a new essay for @WarOnTheRocks, Andrew Reddie and I look at recent coverage of nuclear wargaming involving LLMs. We assess 1) what wargaming is best used for, 2) why LLMs are trigger-happy, and 3) how AI can fit into the wargaming stack.
Expert Answers Top Questions on Nuclear Proliferation and Alliances
In which I answer very good listener questions on proliferation, nuclear modernization, testing, and alliances.
Iran's Record-Breaking Ballistic Missile Strike Analyzed
New Nukesletter this Sunday evening: 7 takeaways from the longest-range use of ballistic missiles in combat to date (March 20, by Iran, against unknown targets in Diego Garcia). https://t.co/rFxfn8Zpx2 https://t.co/Gar5L9A2If
Japan's Lessons From Third Gulf War Missile Operations
New Nukesletter: A short dispatch from Tokyo as I get ready to head home: on some takeaways from conversations here this week on what Japan is learning from missile operations in the Third Gulf War. https://t.co/UoqNQDKNwV https://t.co/0r8PQ1agkZ
North Korea Joins Space Weapons Race Amid Global Distraction
My latest in @ForeignPolicy: with a war in the Middle East, the world appears to have missed that North Korea is now officially getting into the space weapons game (with strong incentives to put nukes in space). My analysis: https://t.co/z11CO5oeyP
China's JL-4 SLBM and All‑Nuclear Submarines Unveiled
New Nukesletter: on recent revelations from ONI on the JL-4 (China's next-gen, longer-range SLBM) and on China's all-nuclear-propulsion future submarine force. https://t.co/XAQ6wN8iEI https://t.co/i9xca9q1K7
Macron Unveils Europe’s ‘Advanced Deterrence’ Nuclear Strategy
French President Emmanuel Macron has just given a truly remarkable speech on France's nuclear policy at a moment of great anxieties in Europe. I wanted to offer an early comment. Welcome to the age of 'Dissuasion Avancée' in Europe. https://t.co/LbQCrmiZld
Iran's Deterrence Strategy Flawed on Missiles, Nuclear Threshold, Trump Diplomacy
New Nukesletter post on Substack: my early assessment of the fundamental missteps in how Iran approached deterrence (with its missile force, with its approach to the nuclear threshold, and with diplomacy with a bad faith Trump administration). Link in next...
NK's Nuclear Strike Capability Grows From Russian Aid
I wrote up a short set of observations on how the lethality of North Korea's tactical nuclear delivery platforms has benefited from its material support for Russia in its war on Ukraine: https://t.co/7XpbUa0g8w
Comparing Nuclear Dawn to Today's AI Revolution
Nukesletter is back on Substack: I share a short essay I wrote on the analogies often drawn between the dawn of the nuclear age and the current conversations around transformation AI. There are limits, but some useful comparisons. https://t.co/7sGgUOuBsW
Valentine's Day Nukesletter Warns of Compute Collapse in War
New Nukesletter out this Valentine's Day: on the cheery topic of compute discontinuities that might emerge from intense great power war (including nuclear war). https://t.co/0NS7f79VRz