Ari Paul

Crypto May Remain Forever High Yet Adoption Stalls

High level crypto market take: I’m 50%/50% between two scenarios. A&B. For each, I’ll provide a “steelman” argument. A. The high is in forever (for this set of crypto assets.) This was/is the “final” wave in organic adoption. Everyone has heard of bitcoin and crypto, and have had it pushed on them even by presidents. And regulation is functionally non-existent under this admin, so we can’t blame regulation for poor adoption. I.e. we’ve had every tailwind imaginable, and there doesn’t seem to be much demand or usage beyond what we’ve seen. El Salvador kind of adopted and then abandoned bitcoin…not helpful or useful to their people. Same for so many apps and institutions and companies - they tried crypto, wasn’t useful to their needs in current form. In this scenario, crypto might be in a place like tech in 2000. The internet didn’t go away, but most of the specific companies behind it did. “Cryptocurrency” is real and valuable and world changing as an idea. That doesn’t mean any specific protocol or asset deserves to survive, or will. While we saw some big liquidations in the market…plenty of larger ones to go potentially, pushing things far lower. B. This pullback is just that, a high time frame pullback, a correction. We’re still in the final innings of late stage capitalism and financial nihilism. Bitcoin and crypto should be big winners to the speculative animal spirits, desire for fiat alternatives as part of that. And there’s plenty of good things being built and quietly growing usage in many niches, something will “breakthrough” and change the narrative. And crypto remains an attractive target for coordinated pumps by the rich and powerful, why should they stop now? We just saw massive liquidations of both leverage and sentiment. The true crypto fundamentals are chugging along, getting built, gradual improvement, etc. If these two scenarios were really 50% each, a moderate allocation to crypto would be sensible due to the asymmetric upside. There are of course middle grounds and other scenarios. Maybe bitcoin crashes to $15k-$40k for a year, and then makes new ATHs? That could happen if say MSTR got liquidated along with a bunch of of other crypto firms, and then fundamentals and macro re-asserted bullishly. How am I investing? I’m positioned reflecting the views above - a moderate but reasonable allocation to BTC and some alts as part of a broader portfolio. And I’m getting a bit more active as a trader given the rising volatility and inefficiency in the market. Plenty of opportunity to be nimble. Right now, crypto is bouncing/rallying, I’m playing from the long side. Will re-evaluate with BTC around $90k (that’s a decent target for a bounce).