Revisiting SpaceX IPO Valuation After Prospectus
I valued SpaceX for its IPO a few weeks ago, with minimal information and a promise to revisit the valuation, when the prospectus was made public. The prospectus is public, the offering price has been set and my update is up and running. https://t.co/zRjpD1C0wv
Tim Cook Departs Apple, Leaving Legacy of Measured Leadership
Tim Cook will be stepping down as CEO of Apple on Sept 1, 2026, after fifteen years atop the company. He has been critiqued for being too cautious, but I celebrate his restraint in my post on his tenure. https://t.co/Pe8zJ6pvOm
April 2026 S&P Gains 10% Amid War, Optimism Returns
In April 2026, US equities saw light in the midst of war and chaos. The S&P 500 rose 10.43%, its best month since April 2020, coming of COVID lows, and the ERP for the index dropped to 4.37%. The market...
SpaceX IPO Poised to Become Record‑high Priced Offering
The SpaceX IPO is coming, and it will be a doozy, a futuristic company (spaceships, satellites and AI), a founder who will keep things interesting (Musk) and a price tag that may make it the most highly priced IPO of...
War Dominates March 2026, Markets Stay Surprisingly Calm
Beware the ides of March? That was true in 2026 as the month started with war, with questions about how long and to what end, and ended with war, and the same questions. Oil prices were up, stock prices were...
Active Investing Success Is Rare and Hard to Attribute
Winning as an active investor is rare, and even with the few who win consistently, separating luck from skill is tough to do, and there are broad differences in market views and investing approaches.
2026 Equity Risk Premium Update for Practitioners Released
The equity risk premium (ERP) is an essential ingredient in hurdle rates in corporate finance, discount rates in valuation and expected returns in financial planning. In 2009, I pulled together everything I know about the ERP, in a paper that...
2025 Profitability Snapshot: Sector Returns & Excess Gains
In my sixth data update, I look at business profitability in 2025, across sectors, industries and regions, scaled to revenues (profit margins) and to invested capital (accounting returns). I use the latter to compute and compare excess returns. https://t.co/L3PDmph4VA
Data Update 5 for 2026: Risk and Hurdle Rates - The 2026 Edition!
The video, the fifth data update for 2026, focuses on how companies’ risk profiles drive hurdle‑rate calculations. After reviewing market‑level performance in earlier updates, the presenter shifts to firm‑level risk divergence and why precise risk measurement is essential for finance...
Data Update 4 for 2026: A Tumultuous Year (2025) for Global Markets!
The fourth data update for 2026 examines how global equity markets performed in 2025, converting local‑currency returns into U.S. dollar terms and pairing that analysis with a snapshot of country‑risk metrics, sovereign ratings, and currency movements at the start of...
Data Update 3 for 2026: The Trust Deficit - From Bonds to Gold to Bitcoin!
The video examines the 2025 "trust deficit" that rippled through major asset classes, anchored by four headline‑making events: unprecedented U.S. tariffs, Moody’s downgrade of the sovereign rating, the longest government shutdown in history, and persistent challenges to Federal Reserve independence....