Nuclear Deal Renewal Demands 13 American Lives
Small sacrifice to make if it means we can renew the Obama nuke deal at 40x the price and 13 dead American soldiers. https://t.co/L9FO5oynXI
US Oil Imports Make Gulf Blockade Self‑inflicted Disaster
The US is a net importer of oil, and expanding exports + blockading the Persian Gulf is hilariously catastrophic for the US consumer.
Persian Gulf Crisis Exposes Broken Geopolitical Consensus
What's happening in the Persian Gulf today is the geopolitical equivalent of Biden's debate performance ... now everyone knows that everyone knows that it's broken, and that changes everything. "Trump's War, Iran's Strait, and the Common Knowledge Game"
Trump’s Market Impact Fades Within Seconds
That’s oil on left and S&P futures on right. Half-life of Trump jawboning is about 30 seconds now. https://t.co/p9gVQNbsrd
Rethink Iran Strategy to Prevent Repeat Disaster
From the Palantir bros to the Secretary of War to the President, everyone involved must change their thinking about Iran or the next set of conflict outcomes will be as disastrous as the first. "But I Did Have Breakfast: Kill Chains,...
Iranian Oil Routes to China via SWIFT Workarounds
Pfft. None of the desanctioned Iranian oil is going anywhere other than China, because only China can shield their payments from SWIFT. All of these masterful gambits assume the Iranians are idiots. They’re evil. Not idiots.
Using Iranian Oil to Temporarily Suppress Prices
“We’d be using the Iranian barrels against the Iranians to keep the price down for the next 10 or 14 days.” Masterful gambit, sir.
One in Ten ACA Holders Lose Coverage as Premiums Surge
This won't show up in any market data, but it's a profound hollowing-out and weakening of America. "Nearly one in 10 people who had Affordable Care Act plans last year dropped health insurance altogether, after premium costs rose sharply" https://t.co/LfNP8wRTD1
ZIRP Turned Emergency QE Into Permanent Financialization Policy
Quantum leap forward in financialization with ZIRP, but original sin (to your handle) was the Maestro using monetary policy to make us richer than our economy could grow. The Rubicon on ZIRP policy was QE 2. That’s when emergency gov’t...
First Closure Hard, Repeated Closures Become Effortlessly Easy
Shutting down Hormuz the first time is like withdrawing from a golf tournament the first time. The second time becomes soooo much easier and will happen with much less provocation.
Hegseth Threatens to Label Anthropic a Supply-Chain Risk
There's a word for this. Starts with an F. "Hegseth said he could label [Anthropic] a supply-chain risk, a move typically reserved for companies linked to adversaries, or invoke the Defense Production Act to force the company to work with the...
Sell‑side Analysts: Useless in Bull, Deadly in Bear
This is not specific to OWL, but today’s sell-side discourse reminds me of some excellent advice I got when I was just starting in this biz: “you don’t need sell-side analysts in a bull market, and in a bear market...