The 4-Year Cycle Is Dead, Long Live the 4-Year Cycle
The author argues that Bitcoin’s classic four‑year market cycle is no longer a reliable predictor, even as the cryptocurrency repeatedly fails to break key resistance levels. Despite a bullish macro backdrop—rising equity indices and strong risk‑asset correlation—Bitcoin has been stuck in a bear‑market pattern, prompting a reassessment of cycle‑based strategies. The post highlights a recent price rejection, sour sentiment, and the need for traders to adapt to a new market dynamic.
Make or Break: Retest of Key Resistance Levels
Bitcoin is testing three key resistance zones – the 21‑week moving average at $79.3k, the short‑term holder (STH) cost basis around $81k, and the 200‑day moving average near $87k. The author argues that a clean break and retest of the...
The Bottoming Phase
Macro conflict and tightening energy markets have pushed oil toward $100, while equities and gold slide. Bitcoin, however, has steadied above its recent lows, avoiding a new bottom despite the turbulence. On‑chain metrics reveal a narrowing supply‑distribution range, indicating that...