War Drives Oil and Rates, Not Stocks, Heatmap Shows
This heatmap shows vol-adjusted moves 25FEB26 (pre-war) to yesterday's close. Matches today's short-term price action. Oil and rates are the war trades... FX kinda... Stocks not at all. https://t.co/NHgKcH2x8z
Market Quiet, Oil and Tech Rise Despite H4L
Today's heatmap Quiet. No moves larger than two average day's ranges. But interesting to see oil and related things up with tech doing well, too. The market is coming to grips with H4L oil and doesn't seem to care that much...
USD Poised for Post‑month‑end Reversal Despite Current Hedging
Month end comes at a most interesting time for the DXY. The market was super complacent in early March and now appears to be hedged a fair bit as risk reversals have blown out in EURUSD etc (bid for EUR puts). I...
Early War Fade Wrong; Shorts Closed, Risk Remains
The consensus in early March was the war is a fade because geopolitics is always a fade. I wrote a piece titled: "am/FX: Too Many Faders" on March 2 outlining why it was way too early to fade an escalating...
Impressed by @J__ross's Standout Twitter Banner Ad
I don't usually just straight up advertise on Twitter but this banner ad @j__ross made is so good ha https://t.co/q7P88moByI
War Boosts Dollar Short-Term, Undermines Long-Term Dominance
The current FX conundrum perfectly summed up by @EpsilonTheory The war is bullish USD until it isn't. "A paradox is emerging in which the war simultaneously strengthens the dollar's short-term position through traditional crisis demand while eroding the institutional foundations that...
SNDK Hits Record High, Yet Falters Amid Rate‑Hike Bearish Pressure
SNDK has made a new all-time high but is struggling to hold on as the index crumples under the weight of tightening financial conditions via rate hikes now prifed into many global curves. Below 700 is break of 100hour and...
Fed Rate Outlook Flips: From Cuts to Possible Hike
Fed funds have flipped to tiny pricing for hikes. Completely unforeseeable and insane move from the perspective of where we were a few months ago. We have gone from captured Fed will cut 3 times to oil shock opens door for...
Buy Crude at 83‑92; Below $75 Signals End
If you are bullish crude on reescalation, this is the buy zone .. Equilibrium in CL1 should be 83/92 .. Single prints yesterday on trump comments in the 91/92 area. Below $75 (the first Sunday gap when the war started)...
Investors Fear Missing Post‑War Rally More Than Downside
An interesting feature of this market, similar to what @kevinmuir has pointed out ... Is that most of my clients are less worried about the downside in stocks and EMFX ... and more worried about missing the rip when the...
Credit Crisis Chatter Spikes, Targeting APO, KRE, KKR
The noise around incoming credit crisis is picking up significantly today .. look APO, KRE, KKR etc