Brown Watson Institute

Venezuela After Maduro: What’s Next?

The Brown‑University panel titled “Venezuela after Maduro: What’s Next?” convened leading scholars and Venezuelan experts to assess the country’s political crossroads following the contested 2024 elections. Moderator Rich Snyder opened with questions for David Smiley, who highlighted the rise of opposition figure Ramario Cordina Machalo, whose shift from abstentionist tactics to an electoral strategy secured a symbolic victory, only to be undermined by a surprise U.S. endorsement of rival Deli Rodriguez. Panelists dissected Machalo’s hard‑line rhetoric, her reliance on influencer networks, and the rapid decline of her poll numbers after initial enthusiasm waned. They noted that while Machalo mobilized public anger, her refusal to broaden her platform—particularly on sanctions and oil privatization—left a sizable segment of voters disengaged. The discussion also covered the broader fragmentation of the opposition, the role of U.S. policy in shaping elite alignments, and the historical pattern of Venezuelan crises that have persisted for two decades. Quotes underscored the paradox of external support: “Trump spurned Machalo in favor of Rodriguez, a move that shocked both Venezuelan observers and opposition insiders,” noted Smiley. Another panelist warned that “democratic transitions are processes, not ruptures,” emphasizing the need for moderate figures within the authoritarian regime to engage in negotiations. The scholars collectively called for a unified opposition front capable of pragmatic compromise, rather than a singular, ideologically rigid leader. The implications are clear: without a cohesive strategy, Venezuela risks continued stalemate, further humanitarian decline, and heightened geopolitical tension. A coordinated opposition that can negotiate with moderate Chavismo elements may open a pathway to credible elections, economic stabilization, and reduced U.S. intervention, reshaping the regional balance of power.