Byrne Hobart

Byrne Hobart

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Author of The Diff; technology, finance, and public equity fundamentals.

Wage Theft Turns Public Welfare Into Corporate Subsidy
SocialMay 8, 2026

Wage Theft Turns Public Welfare Into Corporate Subsidy

Has anyone figured out what they're talking about when they say that means-tested welfare benefits are a subsidy to companies? Why are the workers more willing to work if they have other income sources? If you cut welfare benefits, do...

By Byrne Hobart
Preparing for a Marathon Argument with a Literal Stubborn Child
SocialMay 4, 2026

Preparing for a Marathon Argument with a Literal Stubborn Child

Already bracing myself for what is sure to be a long argument with a very literal and very, very stubborn child. https://t.co/SJHuy3BZpE

By Byrne Hobart
NYT Calls for 20-Year Hard Labor for Shoplifters
SocialApr 22, 2026

NYT Calls for 20-Year Hard Labor for Shoplifters

For all the complaints about left-leaning media bias, the NYT published a piece today that makes a pretty strong case for sentencing shoplifters to a minimum of twenty years of hard labor.

By Byrne Hobart
McDonald's Potato Chips Outproduce NVIDIA's Silicon Chips
SocialApr 17, 2026

McDonald's Potato Chips Outproduce NVIDIA's Silicon Chips

In the mid-1990s, J.R. Simplot, McDonalds' biggest potato supplier, was on the Forbes 400. His main source of wealth was that he wrote a big early angel check into Micron.

By Byrne Hobart
Twitter's Algorithm Now Floods Feeds with Catholic Content
SocialApr 6, 2026

Twitter's Algorithm Now Floods Feeds with Catholic Content

The For You algorithm has slowly tilted towards showing you more stuff like whatever you most recently interacted with, and on the Monday morning after Easter that means it's just a live of every single Twitter user who's Catholic now.

By Byrne Hobart
Red Lobster’s Collapse Reveals Elitist Contempt in Populism
SocialApr 3, 2026

Red Lobster’s Collapse Reveals Elitist Contempt in Populism

Red Lobster did go bankrupt after a PE firm bought them. But it was also after that PE firm sold them to a non-PE company. There’s an elitist strain to economic populism where they have utter contempt for the people they’re...

By Byrne Hobart
AGI Achieved When Models Guess Age Gaps Blindly
SocialApr 1, 2026

AGI Achieved When Models Guess Age Gaps Blindly

We will have achieved AGI when a model that doesn’t know who the guys in this photo are is able to accurately estimate their age gap.

By Byrne Hobart
Google Could Gauge AI's Impact on Doctor Visits and Emissions
SocialMar 29, 2026

Google Could Gauge AI's Impact on Doctor Visits and Emissions

I don't know what Google's policies on sharing anonymized data across services are, but given that they have Gemini and Maps, they're uniquely qualified to see if AI causes a big enough reduction in visits to doctors, CPAs, etc. that...

By Byrne Hobart
Tiny Efficiency Gains Could Offset 25bn Gallons of Diesel
SocialMar 29, 2026

Tiny Efficiency Gains Could Offset 25bn Gallons of Diesel

Great post illustrating the opposite of its actual point: big rigs use 25bn gallons of diesel each year, so we could offset this wasteful activity by making them 0.0007% more efficient. Or 0.0014% more efficient if you count the return...

By Byrne Hobart
AI-Revived Actors Spark Debate Over Authenticity Over Time
SocialMar 18, 2026

AI-Revived Actors Spark Debate Over Authenticity Over Time

When they make movies with AI versions of now-dead actors, will they update them as models get better? Will there be purists who insist that the 2027 version just doesn't have the soul of the '26 original?

By Byrne Hobart
Estimating Billion‑Dollar Price Tag for Anthropic's
SocialMar 17, 2026

Estimating Billion‑Dollar Price Tag for Anthropic's

If you were Ken Griffin, how much would you pay Anthropic to do this? Feel free to round to the nearest billion.

By Byrne Hobart
Kids Outpace Parents in DIY Electronics Basics
SocialMar 15, 2026

Kids Outpace Parents in DIY Electronics Basics

I never learned about electronics, so my knowledge is always 5-10 pages in the Sparkfun manual ahead of my 6yo’s. (This project is an LED that can be toggled on and off by a photoresistor.) https://t.co/nO6A6BgYZS

By Byrne Hobart
AI‑written Stories About AI Job Takeover Go Viral Unnoticed
SocialMar 9, 2026

AI‑written Stories About AI Job Takeover Go Viral Unnoticed

It's a kind of interesting literary development that one of the most popular kinds of LLM-written content is fiction about LLMs replacing all the jobs. These stories reliably do numbers, and apparently their audience doesn't notice or care that it's...

By Byrne Hobart
PBM Critics Overlook Their Owners' Low, Stagnant Margins
SocialMar 6, 2026

PBM Critics Overlook Their Owners' Low, Stagnant Margins

So I've read a few long essays on how abusive pharmaceutical benefit managers and group purchasing organizations are, and they all make a strong case. And then I look at the companies that own PBMs, and their margins are a)...

By Byrne Hobart