Cathie Wood

AI Deflationary Shock Flattening Yield Curve Amid Oil Rise

One of the more interesting signals in the data right now is that the yield curve continues to flatten despite a significant increase in oil prices on a trailing three-month basis. Historically, in a more traditional economic cycle, an energy shock that is being monetized by the Federal Reserve would steepen the curve, not flatten it. The Fed is not monetizing this energy shock. In our view, the bond market may be beginning to discount something much more powerful: the deflationary impact of artificial intelligence and technologically enabled productivity gains across the economy. The cost to train AI models is falling dramatically. Inference costs are collapsing even more rapidly. At the same time, productivity growth appears to be accelerating beneath the surface of the official data, while unit labor costs remain remarkably subdued. Much of the market narrative today is centered around tariffs, deficits, and structurally higher inflation. Yet the underlying signals increasingly suggest that disinflationary forces tied to innovation are building momentum. We believe inflation is likely to surprise on the low side over the next 6–9 months. If that proves correct, the implications for interest rates and long-duration equities could be profound. Historically, the market has tended to underestimate the speed and scale at which technologically driven innovation can reshape the macroeconomic environment. I share my thoughts on this month's episode of In The Know.