The Second Line
The author notes that pinpointing a bear‑market bottom is impossible until hindsight arrives, and many investors regret not buying Bitcoin below $70,000. He frames price thresholds as “lines of defence,” with the first line at $78,000 already breached and a second, more critical line looming. By tracking whether Bitcoin can hold above these levels, he gauges shifting momentum between bears and bulls. The post previews his assessment of the second line’s importance and the odds of a breakout.
Sweaty, Sweaty Bears
The post examines Bitcoin’s surge into the mid‑$80,000 range, arguing that the market’s four‑year cycle is more likely to break during the ensuing bear phase than in the current bull run. It highlights how institutional “smart money” investors typically take...
Bear Flag Break
The author argues that the current bear market phase is the toughest, as the classic bear‑flag pattern on Bitcoin is nearing a breakdown near the $80,000 level. While bullish sentiment is rising, fresh cash inflows are likely to generate another...
🟠[Recording] Orange Call - April '26
Checkonchain released the recording of its April 2026 Orange Member Call, a paid‑subscriber session hosted by James Check. The call walked participants through the latest Bitcoin Monthly Report, highlighting key market trends and price dynamics. Attendees were encouraged to ask questions,...
April Q&A - Ask Your Question Here
Checkonchain’s April Q&A invites Premium subscribers to submit and upvote questions about Bitcoin, on‑chain metrics, and macroeconomic trends. Hosted by James Check (Checkmatey) and Alec, the session will be recorded and published later in the week. The format encourages real‑time...
True Market Resistance
The author tracks Bitcoin’s price against on‑chain cost‑basis levels, viewing $79,000 as a pivotal break that would return the average active investor, recent buyer, and ETF holder to profit. Recent months have seen investors nursing losses and selling into any...
Correcting CAGR
The author argues that Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is a misleading metric because it masks the asset’s extreme volatility and the outsized impact of purchase timing. By dissecting common complaints from bearish commenters, the piece shows that many...
The Convergence
On-chain analysis examines Bitcoin’s transaction database to reveal investor behavior, holding periods, and profit‑loss dynamics. The blog highlights that in the current 2026 bear market, roughly half of Bitcoin’s supply sits underwater and 80% of capital was deployed at higher...
March Q&A - Ask Your Question Here
Checkonchain’s March Q&A invites Premium subscribers to submit and upvote questions on Bitcoin market dynamics, on‑chain analytics, and macroeconomic themes. The session will be recorded and the answers published later in the week. This interactive format leverages paid membership to...
A Classic Bitcoin Market Update
The latest Bitcoin market update examines how recent geopolitical de‑escalation is reducing the crypto risk premium, while pricing models indicate a mean‑reversion target around $28,000. On‑chain data suggests that classic bottom‑formation signals are losing strength, and investor flows are gravitating...
The Big Picture: Macro & Onchain Update with TBL
Checkonchain announced a new interview series with The Bitcoin Layer, featuring a split discussion between macro analyst Nik Bhatia and on‑chain specialist James. Nik will dissect current liquidity, the US‑Iran conflict, oil prices, and dollar strength, while James will evaluate...