Cross-border Tax Talks

No Strait Answers: Energy Shocks, AI Stocks, and Trade Talks

In this episode recorded at PwC’s Asia‑Pacific Global Tax Symposium, Doug McHoney and PwC chief economist Dr. Alexis Crowe examine the geopolitical fallout from the Iran‑Houthi conflict and its ripple effects on global energy markets, highlighting how disruptions to LNG, helium and petrochemicals could reshape supply for 18‑24 months. They outline three oil‑price scenarios—baseline ($80/barrel), adverse ($100/barrel) and severe ($120/barrel)—and discuss the consequent inflationary pressures, fiscal responses, and recession risks for the U.S., Europe and Asia. The conversation then shifts to the U.S. economy, where AI‑driven investment is masking underlying vulnerabilities, and to the rapid growth of private credit, which, after the 2008 crisis, has moved riskier lending out of regulated banks and could spark another financial shock if underwriting standards deteriorate.