Insights on Fed's Future, Valuations, and Market Outlook
Had the opportunity to join David Lin for a wide-ranging conversation on the Federal Reserve. We covered a lot of ground, including the path ahead for policy under the new Chair, what current valuations may be telling us, and the outlook for markets. My thanks to David for the discussion and opportunity to exchange views. Full interview linked below. https://t.co/4VwkURm4u7
Payroll Gains Mask Underlying Job Losses and Wage Decline
It’s tiring having to listen to talk on bubble vision about how great the U.S. economy is, as has been the case this morning. Good grief. Everyone is fixated on the +115k nonfarm payroll gain in April, with nary a comment anywhere...
Investors Bet Trump Gains as War Risks Navy Clash
Looks to me as though Mr. Market is giving Donald Trump the benefit of the doubt over this blockade. The only issue is whether the regime would ever dare to attack the U.S. Navy. That would probably be the final...
Conflicting Data Undermines Trust in NFP Service Jobs
Best month for service-sector employment (+143k) since December 2024 if you believe the nonfarm payroll report. Worst month since December 2023 if you believe the ISM survey that just came out. Take your pick, because they both can’t be right. Thing is –...
America’s Iran Policy
If the war is “very complete”, what then has happened to “unconditional surrender”? Are we beginning to see a new TACO trade because Iran has successfully weaponized the oil price? Was this always only about decimating Iran’s military capacity, to then...