
Both short and long term, this is a good level to fade the belly with the curve-wide 'fly (2s5s30s) back below -90. Mid-curve auctions next week could trigger a reversal https://t.co/q33LIbWZ5V

USTs for now reacting to the loss of tariff revenue, but it remains to be seen how this plays out. Curve steepening https://t.co/ZMjLP2vbxi

Long-end breakevens have been under pressure with a brand new 30y TIPS ($9B) up for auction later today. This will be it for the long end though. Rest of the month is front (2s) and belly (5s &...
Great reminder futures rolls (H25 to M26) are upon us. Bottomline March 2y futs should be heavy. Roll is nasty at -4.5 which should add to the flattening pressure along with front-end auctions next week.
Busy UST auction schedule in the next eight days could finally slowdown the rally a bit and offer an opportunity. Brand new 20s ($16B) today, new 30y TIPS tomorrow ($9B), and regular size/schedule 2s, 5s and 7s next week.
Big mistake is assuming move in rates is about current economic data. Reaction to ADP a good example

Bond futures well bid again as the curve flattens aggressively with front end whites all red. https://t.co/d4dX0TgauD
A very positive setup for duration and UST term premium compression if rates are to stay low for a longer timeframe because of AI disruption. It will take time to play out but long end is well priced and...

It has been a painful few weeks for the short belly crowd (moi included) as 5s has been kinging up on the curve. Warsh nomination and slow AI disruption have been the main culprits https://t.co/3pqYjTV3QZ
Risk off upending most auction setups as US Treasury gets ready to dump some serious duration into a strong rally across the curve with belly leading. https://t.co/vNjhvRIzxH