Listing the Risks Behind (Unpredicted) Solar Oversupply and the Resulting Extreme Low Prices
Solar capacity in the EU is growing at roughly 60 GW per year, creating frequent midday oversupply that can push electricity prices into negative territory. When actual generation exceeds day‑ahead forecasts by several gigawatts, markets have seen four‑digit negative prices, as illustrated by the Easter Monday spike. The post identifies six tail‑risk factors that amplify these price crashes, highlighting the non‑linear nature of the problem. Operators now rely on curtailment, nuclear output cuts, and storage to keep the grid balanced.
MFRR Capacity - Germany 2025
Germany’s manual Frequency Restoration Reserve (mFRR) market generated about €60 million ($65 million) in 2025, but its tendered volumes have fallen to roughly 20% of aFRR capacity over the last decade. Downward mFRR prices dip to around €1/MW·h ($1.09) in winter, while...
Imbalance Price: Explanation of an Extreme Price in Germany
On March 1, Germany’s balancing market recorded an extreme negative imbalance price of ‑1474 €/MWh for a single 15‑minute interval. The price plunge was driven by an unexpected supply shortfall that outpaced intraday trading activity, leaving the system operator to procure balancing energy...
On Imbalance Prices
The blog explains how imbalance prices act as a 15‑minute settlement tool for Balance Responsible Parties (BRPs) in the European power market, bridging the gap between scheduled and real‑time generation. It contrasts three pricing scenarios—day‑ahead parity, punitive rates, and asymmetric...