China's Aggressive Push for Global Economic Supremacy
Here is 45 or so mins of Engelsberg's @jackfdickens podcasting with me on China's bid for economic supremacy. Summits, trade, truces, industrial policy, mercantilism, the economy and more https://t.co/jtjHb96Ofm https://t.co/y911vJyPbE
China's Property Prices Midway Through Adjustment, Study Finds
Nice write up by @toby_n__ of the Rogoff and Yang paper where authors suggest China is half to 2/3rds of the way through its property price ‘adjustment’, depending on if its following a Japan or U.S. path. I have...
China’s Industrial Push Threatens G7’s 13% Export Share
Hard hitting and detailed rpt on China's new industrial policy and implications. Including the potential challenge to/loss of market share in G7 = almost 13% of mfg exports by 2030. Past due time to smell the coffee. https://t.co/9WBKMxPaRz
China’s New Laws Target Meta and Foreign Jurisdiction
Big story today and you should read smart ppl like @ChrisRMcGuire and @DesmondShum on the significance and implications for China, Meta, jurisdiction etc. Interesting though that this move follows the 'sharply titled' Reg of the PRC on Countering Foreign...
Ex‑BoE Economist
Imagine writing and publishing an article on trade (by ex BoE chief economist) in Britain’s premier financial newspaper that doesn’t refer at all to China. Well here it is
Sailing Itself Caused Massive WW2 Atlantic Shipping Losses
In other news the root cause of the sinking of hundreds of thousands of tons of merchant shipping in the Atlantic in WW2 was the decision to sail.
Caution Needed Before Declaring China Iran War’s Biggest Beneficiary
In this, some pushback against the view born of speculation or political prejudice that China is the biggest winner of the Iran war, innit? The args are warnings and poss serious but there is much to weigh b4 jumping to...
China's Trade Reliance Makes Sea Lane Disruptions Catastrophic
It might be. But this overlooks chinas dependence on trade. Iran and the gulf sell oil, at any price. They are critical inputs. China’s much larger trade by a country mile is about open sea lanes, no choke points, and...
New Crisis Mirrors Suez, Yet Isn't
Here’s a suez redux. But it’s not suez, any more than it’s Vietnam or Iraq.
Govt Prioritizes Stability, Market Unimpressed by Incremental Targets
This is a useful table, and shows the revealed preference by the govt for stability, and to keep the current policy structure essentially on track. I don’t think many or any thought different. That said, there are a few things...
War Undermines Plans, Makes Predictions Fragile
Profound. No plan is unchanged by war, and all predictions are rendered wafer thin. Bowen’s priceless insight.. https://t.co/h4FDPyZ6Y4
US Haven Status Threatened, yet Likely to Fade
'For now, though, this serves as another warning sign to US authorities that their haven status is in peril'. I don't think this is any more right now than it was a year ago in other circumstances, or before that....
Supreme Court Rules Trump Tariffs Illegal, Congress Holds Tax Power
Trump's IEEPA tariffs are illegal, as per the SC, and he's going to have to work with Congress and subject to the law now to sustain the tariff regime in various other ways. Or go back to court. China and...
China’s $20T Paradox Defies Any Five‑year Plan
A short op on what’s going on under the hood in China’s $20 trn economic paradox with the 15th FYP due next month. No five-year plan will solve the paradox of China’s economy https://t.co/uCtAPYrW7A