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Ian Shepherdson

Ian Shepherdson

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Chief Economist, Pantheon Macroeconomics; U.S. macro/earnings/market impacts.

Recent Posts

Trump’s 5.4% GDP Claim Was Just a Model
Social•Feb 20, 2026

Trump’s 5.4% GDP Claim Was Just a Model

Remember when Trump was bragging about Q4 GDP growth, quoting a 5.4% rate? That was the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model, not the actual. Now we have the actual: 1.4%. Moral: Don't take GDP "trackers" or anyone citing them, remotely seriously. Thank you for your attention etc

By Ian Shepherdson
Biden's Trade Deficit Slightly Lower than Trump's, Not 78% Drop
Social•Feb 12, 2026

Biden's Trade Deficit Slightly Lower than Trump's, Not 78% Drop

So, for the record: The trade deficit in the first 11 months of the Trump administration was $839.5B. In the same period in 2024, the final Biden year, it was $806.6B. And if you think this year's performance is a...

By Ian Shepherdson